基于二次博弈云模型的石羊河流域水资源承载力评价

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Shiyang River Basin Based on Quadratic Game Theory Cloud Mode

为准确判断石羊河流域水资源承载力状况,提升流域内经济高质量发展与水资源承载力的适应能力,从社会、经济、生态、水资源系统中选取16个评价指标构建石羊河流域水资源承载力评价体系,利用二次博弈云模型和障碍度模型评价石羊河流域2000~2020年水资源承载力变化状况并查明主要障碍因子。结果表明,2000~2020年,石羊河流域水资源承载力状况有所改善,水资源承载力总体处于Ⅲ级(临界承载状态);生态环境用水率、人均GDP、实际耕地灌溉率是水资源承载力的主要障碍因子;石羊河流域应调整用水结构、优化水资源配置、促进节水型经济的发展、加强生态环境保护,以提高水资源的合理高效利用。

To accurately judge the carrying capacity of water resources in the Shiyang River Basin and improve the a-daptive capacity of high-quality economic development to water resources carrying capacity within the basin,a water re-sources carrying capacity evaluation system with 16 selected evaluation indicators from social,economic,ecological,and water resources systems was constructed.The changes in water resources carrying capacity in the Shiyang River Basin from 2000 to 2020 were evaluated using a secondary-game cloud model and an obstacle degree model to identify the main obstacles factors.The results show that during 2000-2020,the carrying capacity of water resources in the Shiyang River Basin has improved,and the carrying capacity of water resources is generally at level III(critical bearing state).The ma-jor obstacles to water resources carrying capacity are the ecological water consumption rate,per capita GDP,and the ac-tual irrigation rate of arable land.To enhance the rational and efficient utilization of water resources,the Shiyang River Basin should adjust its water usage structure,optimize water resources allocation,promote the development of water-sav-ing economies,and strengthen ecological environment protection.