EPC模式下总承包项目联合体合作关系的稳定性

Stability of the cooperation relationship among general contracting project consortia under EPC mode

EPC总承包模式因其责任高度集成以及精细的项目控制,在国内外得到了广泛应用。为促进我国EPC模式的进一步推行,文章对当前热门的EPC模式下总承包项目联合体合作关系的稳定性进行了研究。首先,基于演化博弈理论,得到了各主体合作过程中的复制动态方程和策略稳定点,探讨了各主体的策略选择与积极优化项目的关系;之后,引入了系统动力学模型对博弈模型进行了数值仿真,得出了不同的初始选择策略对合作稳定性的影响规律。研究结果表明,合作的稳定条件与各主体的初始策略选择的概率相关;各主体8种不同的初始选择策略,最终均会稳定在积极合作或消极应对;此外,设计单位的初始合作意愿对施工单位和建设单位的合作优化意愿产生重要影响;不同的外生参数变动也会影响三方主体的策略选择变化。

The EPC model has been widely used at China and overseas due to its highly integrated responsibilities as well as fine project control.In order to promote the further implementation of the EPC consortium model in China,the stability of consortium partnerships in the current trendy EPC model for general contracting projects is studied.Firstly,based on the evolutionary game theory,the replicated dynamic equations and strategy stability points in the cooperation process of each subject are obtained,and the relationship between the strategy selection of each subject and the active optimization of the project is explored;Subsequently,the system dynamics model was introduced to carry out numerical simulation of the game model,and the laws of the influence of different initial selection strategies on the stability of the cooperation were derived.The results show that the stability conditions of cooperation are related to the probability of the initial strategy choices of each subject;the eight different initial choice strategies of each subject are eventually stabilized at positive optimization or maintaining the stage.Moreover,the initial cooperation willingness of the design unit has a significant impact on the cooperation optimization willingness of the construction unit and the building unit;different exogenous parameter variations also affect the strategy selection changes of the three subjects.