TY含水页岩气藏产量递减规律及可采储量预测

Production decline rule and recoverable reserves prediction of TY water-bearing shale gas reservoir

含水页岩气藏具有产量递减快、能量消耗大的特点。文中结合页岩气藏生产过程理论研究,提出表征页岩气藏产能、产水和产出效率变化的3类指标,分析了含水页岩气藏在不同生产阶段的生产动态变化特点;在对比不同页岩气藏产量递减分析方法的基础上,建立了可描述含水页岩气藏生产全过程的产量递减预测模型;利用衰竭开发条件下的产量-能量置换守恒原则,提出了一个基于累计产气量与累计能耗关系的可采储量预测方法,并分析了其适用性。研究结果表明,该方法可以较全面、准确地预测含水页岩气藏的产量递减规律和可采储量,为此类气藏的合理开发提供技术支持。

Water-bearing shale gas reservoirs have the characteristics of rapid production decline and large energy consumption.This paper firstly put forward three types of indicators representing the changes of productivity,water production and production efficiency of shale gas reservoirs combining with shale gas reservoirs production process theoretical research,and analyzed the production dynamic change characteristics of water-bearing shale gas reservoirs in different production stages.Based on the comparison of different production decline analysis methods of shale gas reservoirs,a production decline prediction model that described the whole production process of water-bearing shale gas reservoirs was established.Using the principle of conservation of production-energy replacement under depletion development condition,a recoverable reserves prediction method based on the relationship between cumulative gas production and cumulative energy consumption was proposed,whose applicability was analyzed.The research results show that the method can predict the production decline laws and recoverable reserves of water-bearing shale gas reservoirs comprehensively and accurately,providing technical support for the rational development of such gas reservoirs.