强省会战略可以促进区域协调发展吗?——基于26省区的实证研究

Can the Strategy of Strengthening Provincial Capital Promote Regional Coordinated Development?——An Empirical Research Based on 26 Provinces and Regions

基于首位城市和区域协调发展这两个概念的内涵,构建了相应的多维测度指标体系,对我国26个省(自治区)2012-2022年的省会城市首位度和省域协调发展水平进行了测算,并建立面板数据计量模型分析了“强省会”战略对区域协调发展水平的影响效应。研究发现:不同省份省会首位度差距较大且分化明显,呈现“强省会、较强省会、较弱省会、弱省会”四种分布格局。各省份的区域协调发展水平稳步提升且梯次优化,在不平衡发展中走向相对平衡。不同首位度提升对区域协调发展具有不同影响,省会城市人口首位度对全省区域协调发展存在“倒U”型影响,GDP首位度则对全省区域协调发展有显著的阻碍作用,政府战略规划正向调节了省会首位度对区域协调发展的影响。鉴于此,实施“强省会”战略要充分考虑省会城市类型,因省而异采取分类施策的方式,相机抉择政府战略规划。

Based on the concepts of the first city and regional coordinated development,the paper constructs the corresponding multi-dimensional measure index system,calculates the capital cities'primacy degree of 26 provinces(autonomous regions)and the coordinated development level of these provinces from 2012 to 2022,and sets up a panel data measurement model to analyze the impact of the strategy of"strengthening provincial capital"on the regional coordinated development.The results show that there are four patterns:"stronger capital,strong capital,weaker capital and weak capital".The level of regional coordinated development of each province has been steadily raised and optimized a relative balance in unbalanced development.Different primacy degree has different influence on regional coordinated development,and the primacy population degree of the capital city has"inverted U"influence on regional coordinated development of the whole province,the first degree of GDP has a significant hindrance to the coordinated development of the whole province.Government strategic planning positively regulates the influence.In view of this,the government should fully consider the type of provincial capital cities,take classified implementation of the strategy of"strengthening provincial capital"and discretionary choose the government strategic planning.