基于ITSA模型的浙江省世界银行贷款千岛湖项目成效分析

Performance analysis of Zhejiang Province’s World Bank-funded Qiandao Lake Project based on the ITSA model

针对国家级战略规划《千岛湖及新安江上游流域水资源与生态环境保护综合规划》的出台,浙江省于2018年11月启动了世界银行贷款浙江千岛湖及新安江流域水资源与生态环境保护项目。为评估该项目对千岛湖水资源的阶段性保护成效,本文采用中断时间序列分析ITSA模型进行定量分析,研究千岛湖项目与千岛湖水基金协同执行2年之后的治理成效。研究结论显示,千岛湖部分水质指标的改善已进入瓶颈期,要获得水质的进一步提升,仍需继续加大科技投入,除提升上游来水水质外,还要从提升水环境治理的科技水平、治理广度与深度等方面着手,才能获得更大突破。

In response to the national strategic plan Comprehensive Plan for Water Resources and Ecological Environment Protection in Qiandao Lake and the Upper Xin’an River Basin,Zhejiang Province substantially initiated the World Bankfunded Water Resources and Ecological Environment Protection Project in Zhejiang Qiandao Lake and Xin’an River Basin in November 2018.To assess the phased protective effectiveness of this project on Qiandao Lake’s water resources,this paper employs the Interrupted Time Series Analysis(ITSA)model for quantitative analysis.The study reveals significant management achievements two years after the simultaneous implementation of the Qiandao Lake project and the Qiandao Lake Water Fund.The conclusions indicate that the improvement of certain water quality indicators in Qiandao Lake has reached a bottleneck stage.To further enhance water quality,continued investment in science and technology is necessary.This includes improving the quality of upstream inflow water and focusing on enhancing the technological level,breadth,and depth of water environment management for more significant breakthroughs.