基于度时数的热负荷预测与供热系统能耗管控

Heat Load Forecasting Based on Degree Hours and Energy Con-sumption Control of Heating System

在“双碳”背景下,供热企业实施精细化管理是绿色发展的必然要求,对此以热负荷预测为核心的精细化运行调节尤为重要。目前,已有许多学者基于数据驱动对热负荷进行了大量研究,并在热负荷预测和实践上取得一定的成果,对现阶段热负荷的研究具有借鉴意义。本文作者结合多年一线运行调节经验,以单位供暖度日数单位面积供热量的指标为突破口,推导了基于度时数的热负荷预测方法,同时提出以数据管理为核心的能耗管控思路,在实践中均取得了较好的成效。

Under the background of‘double carbon’,the implementation of fine management in heating enterprises is an inevitable requirement for green development.Therefore,the fine oper-ation regulation with heat load forecasting as the core is particularly important.At present,many scholars have conducted a lot of research on heat load based on data-driven,and have achieved certain results in heat load forecasting and practice,which has reference significance for the research of heat load at this stage.Based on the experience of many years of first-line operation and regulation,the author of this paper takes the index of heat supply per unit heating degree days per unit area as the breakthrough point,deduces the heat load forecasting method based on degree hours,and puts forward the idea of energy consumption control with data management as the core,which has achieved good results in practice.