RCEP对中日汽车及零部件产出和贸易的影响——基于动态递归GTAP的模拟分析

Assessing the Effects of RCEP on the Automobile Sector:A Dynamic Recursive GTAP Analysis of China-Japan Trade

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)首次达成了中、日两国之间双边关税的减让安排协议。中国是全球最大的汽车生产和消费市场,日本是中国汽车的第一大进口来源国。本文通过分析中、日两国汽车及零部件产品贸易的现状及特征,总结RCEP协定下中日汽车及零部件的具体降税安排,并采用GTAP模型模拟分析了RCEP对中日汽车及零部件产出和贸易的影响。研究发现:近二十年来,中、日两国汽车及零部件双边贸易大幅增长;日本的汽车产品具有较强的国际竞争力,且对中国贸易互补性较强。RCEP关税减免和消除技术性贸易壁垒等措施将显著促进中、日两国汽车及零部件产出和贸易的增长。中国企业要充分利用RCEP原产地累积规则,增加对日本汽车零部件产品的出口额,并积极扩大新能源汽车出口。

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)agreement marks a historic milestone by establishing the first bilateral tariff reduction framework between China and Japan.Given China’s status as the foremost global hub for automobile production and consumption,coupled with Japan’s position as the primary source of China’s automobile imports,this study delves into the intricate dynamics of automobile and parts trade between these two economic powerhouses.It meticulously outlines the specific tariff reduction commitments for automobiles and parts under the RCEP framework and employs a dynamic recursive Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP)simulation to evaluate the consequential impacts on the production and trade of automobiles and parts between China and Japan.Our analysis reveals a substantial growth in bilateral trade of automobiles and parts over the past two decades,underscored by Japan’s robust international competitiveness and the complementary nature of trade relations with China.The study further demonstrates that the RCEP-induced tariff reductions and the diminution of technical trade barriers are poised to significantly bolster the output and trade of automobiles and parts between the two nations.It is imperative for Chinese firms to strategically leverage the RCEP’s rules of origin accumulation to augment exports of Japanese automotive parts and to vigorously pursue the expansion of new energy vehicle exports.