非巨灾型地震Natech事件中储罐泄漏致多米诺效应动态演化分析

Analysis on dynamic evolution of domino effect caused by tank leakage in non-catastropheNatech events triggered by earthquake

为探究地震作用下地裂缝诱发的非巨灾型Natech事件对储罐泄漏火灾多米诺效应的影响,提出1种基于Natech情景假设的GERT-DBN演化分析模型。该模型将非巨灾型Natech事件的时空演化与概率预测相结合,基于量化的情景信息,明确组成多米诺事故情景的主要失效储罐组合及其发生概率;在储罐受不同程度地裂缝损伤的失效情景假设下,获得多米诺效应升级概率伴随事故情景演化的变化规律,实现储罐多米诺事故升级概率的动态预测,并应用实例进行预测验证。研究结果表明:实例加氢站储罐组事故情景下,地震及其次生地裂缝损伤的增大与热辐射累积产生耦合作用会加速多米诺事故升级;多米诺事故升级概率在储氢罐失效前伴随事故演化逐渐下降;安全防护系统效用会一定程度上受到地裂缝损伤影响。研究结果可为非巨灾型地震Natech事件中的风险研判与管控工作提供参考。

In order to investigate the influence of non-catastrophe Natech events induced by ground fissures under seismic action on the domino effect of storage tank leakage and fire,a GERT-DBN evolutionary analysis model based on the assumptions of Natech scenario was proposed.The model combined the spatial and temporal evolution of non-catastrophe Natech events with probabilistic prediction,and specified the major combination of failure tanks that comprise the domino accident scenarios and their probabilities of occurrence based on the quantified scenario information.Under the failure scenario assumption of different degrees of ground crack damage to storage tank,the variation law of the probability of domino effect escalation with the evolution of accident scenario was obtained.The dynamic prediction of the probability of tank domino accident escalation was achieved,and the prediction was conducted by real case.The results show that under the accident scenario of storage tank group in the hydrogenation station of the case,the increase of earthquake and its secondary ground fissure damage coupled with the accumulation of thermal radiation will accelerate the domino accident escalation.The probability of domino accident escalation decreases gradually along with the accident evolution before the failure of hydrogen storage tanks,and the utility of the safety protection system is affected by the ground fissure damage.The research results can provide reference for risk assessment and control in the non-catastrophic Natech events of earthquakes.