基于最优MaxEnt模型预测小粒绒盾小蠹的潜在适生区

Prediction of Potential Habitat Area of Xyleborinus saxesenii Based on Optimal MaxEnt Model

小粒绒盾小蠹Xyleborinus saxesenii是一种钻蛀多种林木的高危险性检疫害虫,对我国林业安全造成了极大威胁,研究其潜在适生区分布格局变化规律,对其监测与早期防控策略的制定具有重要参考意义。利用最优MaxEnt模型,以当前获得的593个小粒绒盾小蠹分布位点,预测当前和未来气候情境下小粒绒盾小蠹的全球及中国潜在适生区,再基于适生分布面积增长率和生境质心变化程度比较小粒绒盾小蠹在中国的地理变化。结果显示:小粒绒盾小蠹当前在全球的适生区主要位于欧洲大部分区域、北美西部高山区域和东部沿海、南美东南部沿海、大洋洲东南沿海和亚洲东部;小粒绒盾小蠹当前在我国的潜在适宜区主要分布在胡焕庸线以南,未来气候变化条件下其生境质心将向我国西北方向迁移,建议各地区的林业部门可依据小粒绒盾小蠹的适生等级,尤其是中、高适生区,构建一套“分级管控”的检疫与监测管理措施。

Asian ambrosia beetle(Xyleborinus saxesenii)is a crucial quarantine insect species worldwide.This beetle creates holes in woody trees and introduces pathogens that cause severe losses due to tree mortality,posing considerable threats to the forestry safety of China.Therefore,accurate prediction of the potential habitat area of X.saxesenii is essential for the relevant forestry department to implement effective monitoring and early control strategies.Using the optimal Max-Ent model,the current and future potential habitat area of X.saxesenii worldwide and in China were predicted via 593 spe-cies distribution records.Meanwhile,the changes in the geographic distribution of X.saxesenii under the abovementioned conditions were exclusively compared by using the distribution area ratio and the degree of habitat centroid transfer in China.The results showed that the global distribution area of X.saxesenii was mainly concentrated in large parts of Eu-rope,the western mountainous regions and east coasts of North America,the southeast coast of South America,the southeast coast of Oceania,and the east of Asia under the current climate scenario.For the potential distribution in China,X.saxesenii was mainly encountered in the south of Hu’s line under the current climate scenario,and the habitat centroid gradually moved to the northwest of China under future climate scenarios.In summary,this study contributes to further controlling the dispersal of X.saxesenii,especially if there is a middle and high suitable area at the global scale and in China.