基于SD模型的乌苏市水资源承载力仿真与情景模拟

Scenario Simulation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Wusu City Using System Dynamics Model

乌苏市位于天山北坡经济带中部,是天山经济带的核心开发区。由于水资源短缺,乌苏市核心经济开发区的建设受到了阻碍。因此,研究乌苏市水资源的最优可持续发展模式已成为迫切需要解决的问题。基于系统动力学原理,利用Vensim软件,建立乌苏市系统动力学模型,拟定4种不同的发展情景模式,基于乌苏市2010—2020年的有关历史数据,预测了2021—2030年乌苏市水资源承载力的动态变化,从而找到改善乌苏市水资源承载能力的途径。结果表明:现状延续型情景下乌苏市2030年的需水总量达9.83亿m^(3),超过乌苏市2030年用水总量控制目标,缺水量达2.66亿m^(3);在现状延续型、协调发展型、经济发展型和节水型4种情景下,乌苏市2025年的水资源供需比分别为0.71、0.80、0.69、0.89,2030年的水资源供需比分别为0.73、0.85、0.68、0.92;乌苏市水资源承载力一直处于供需不平衡的局面,只有协调发展情景下,乌苏市水资源供需比较高且趋向良性发展模式;现状延续型情景下,2022—2030年,乌苏市的水资源承载状态均为临界承载状态,且随着时间的推移,承载状态将逐渐恶化,未来乌苏市的水资源将无法承载起社会经济的发展规模。研究成果可为乌苏市水资源的高效合理利用提供理论依据。

Located in the central part of the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains,Wusu City is at the heart of the region’s core development zone.The construction of the vital economic area in Wusu City has been hindered by a scarcity of water resources.Identifying an optimal sustainable development strategy for Wusu’s water resources has emerged as an urgent challenge.Utilizing the principles of system dynamics and employing Vensim software,we established a system dynamics model for Wusu City and proposed four different development scenarios.Drawing on historical data from 2010 to 2020,the model forecasts the dynamic shifts in Wusu’s water resource carrying capacity from 2021 to 2030,aiming to uncover solutions for enhancing the city’s water resource carrying capacity.The findings reveal that,in the status quo scenario,the total water demand in Wusu City is projected to reach 983 million cubic meters by 2030,exceeding the water use target of 2030.The water deficit is estimated to be 266 million cubic meters.Under four different scenarios(status quo,coordinated development,economic development,and water conservation),the water supply-demand ratios in Wusu City are projected to be 0.71,0.80,0.69,and 0.89 respectively by 2025,and 0.73,0.85,0.68,and 0.92 respectively by 2030.The water resources carrying capacity in Wusu City has been in an imbalance,with only the coordinated development scenario showing a relatively high and trending towards a sustainable pattern.In the status quo scenario,from 2022 to 2030,Wusu City’s water resources carrying capacity remains at a critical level,and is expected to deteriorate with time,which won’t be able to support the scale of its socioeconomic development.