供应链对国际政治关系的影响——基于跨国面板数据(2007—2020年)的实证研究

The Impact of Supply Chain on Political Relationships--An Empirical Research Utilizing Cross Border Panel Data(2007-2020)

基于60个国家2007—2020年的跨国面板数据,可以考察供应链时代的贸易对国际政治关系的影响。根据联合国大会投票构造多个指标衡量国与国之间的政治关系,使用增加值贸易数据构建国与国之间的供应链关系,采用工具变量的估计结果发现,两国间供应链贸易的水平越高,它们的政治关系越友好。进一步地,通过区分不同类型的供应链关系以及拓展性的分析,研究发现,紧密型和复杂型的供应链关系对于政治关系的促进效应显著地强于松散型和简单型。此外,两国间的供应链关系越对称、双方中任何一方参与国际分工体系的程度越深,以及它们在全球生产体系中的角色越不同,供应链关系对政治关系的促进效应越强烈。研究结果表明,在全球供应链重组的背景下,要突破传统贸易的视野,从供应链视角谋划中国的对外贸易,从“贸易外交”走向“供应链外交”,让贸易关系真正成为政治关系的“压舱石”。

This article explores the impact of trade in the supply chain era on international political relationships,utilizing panel data from 60 countries spanning the years 2007 to 2020.Multiple indicators measuring political relationships between countries are constructed based on United Nations General Assembly voting data,while supply chain relationships between countries are based on value-added trade data.Through instrumental variable estimation,the research reveals that higher levels of supply chain trade between two countries are associated with friendlier political relationships.Moreover,the article distinguishes between various types of supply chain relationships and conducts exploratory analysis.The study finds that close-knit and complex supply chain relationships have a significantly stronger promoting effect on political relationships compared to loose and simple relationships.Furthermore,the more symmetric the supply chain relationship between two countries,the deeper the involvement of each party in the international division of labor,and the more distinct their roles in the global production system,the stronger the promoting effect of supply chain relationships on political relationships.Based on the findings of this study,it is suggested that in the context of global supply chain restructuring,it is essential to transcend the traditional perspective of trade and approach China's foreign trade from a supply chain standpoint.Shifting from "trade diplomacy" to "supply chain diplomacy" can truly establish trade relationships as the foundation of political relationships.