新疆肉羊产业2023年度发展分析及2024年度发展趋势预测

Analysis on the Development Status of Xinjiang Mutton Sheep Industry in 2023 and Prediction for 2024

【目的】本文在全国及新疆2023年肉羊产业形势分析的基础上,跟踪了解新疆17家高效肉羊品种选育推广体系重点示范企业生产经营等情况,并且对2024年肉羊产业进行了趋势分析。【方法】结合产业动态信息和市场行情,采取定性和定量相结合的方法。【结果】2023年新疆羊肉价格下跌趋势明显,羊肉产量、消费稳中有增,活羊调运量增长,示范企业肉羊年出栏数、出栏率增长,存栏量下降,羊繁殖率和羔羊成活率稳步提升,羊单位平均总成本与饲草料成本变动趋势大致一致,均呈现逐年攀升态势,企业平均收益和利润降至近五年最低。【结论】预计2024年饲草料价格上涨将导致羊单位总成本继续攀升,羊肉价格将继续震荡运行,但振幅区间有限,羊肉消费增加是大趋势,但增速可能会放缓,随着羊肉需求的增长,羊肉市场供应将会进入平稳增长阶段。

【Objective】In this paper,based on the analysis of development status of the meat sheep industry in China and Xinjiang in 2023,the production and operation of 17 key demonstration enterprises of the efficient meat sheep breed breeding and promotion system in Xinjiang were tracked,and the development trend of the industry in 2024 was analyzed.【Methods】Combining industry dynamic information and market conditions,qualitative and quantitative methods were adopted.【Results】In 2023,the price of mutton in Xinjiang continued to decline,the production and consumption of mutton increased steadily,the volume of live sheep transportation increased,the annual sheep output number and rate in the demonstration enterprises both increased,the stock decreased,sheep reproduction rate and survival rate of lambs increased steadily,and the average total cost of sheep per unit was roughly consistent with the change trend of forage cost,and both showed an increasing trend year by year.The average incomes and profits of enterprises fell to their lowest in nearly five years.【Conclusion】It was expected that in 2024,the increase in feed prices would lead to the total unit cost of sheep to continue to rise,and the overall cost would be unlikely to decline greatly,and the price of mutton would continue to fluctuate,with limited fluctuated range.The increase in mutton consumption would be the general trend,but the growth rate may slow down.With the growth of the demand for mutton,the supply of mutton in markets would enter the stage of steady growth.