碳交易试点政策的工业节能减排效应研究

Study on industrial energy saving and emission reduction effect of carbon trading pilot policy

工业节能减排对我国实现能源领域碳达峰、碳中和目标至关重要,碳交易试点政策的政策效果是决定工业节能减排效应大小的重要手段。然而,现有研究缺乏同时将产业集聚和工业能源效率作为中介变量,研究碳交易试点政策对工业节能与减排的内在机制,为此,将2013年开始实施的碳交易试点政策作为准自然实验,基于2005—2020年中国30个省级的面板数据,采用多期双重差分模型实证检验了碳交易试点政策对工业领域是否具有节能减排效应,二者间的传导机制、作用强度等。主要研究发现,碳交易试点政策既能直接、也能间接通过产业集聚和工业能源效率显著促进工业节能减排,且政策效果具有时滞性,政策实施后的第二年节能效果显著,第二、第四年减排效果显著。碳交易试点政策的工业节能减排效果呈现出东部>西部>中部。上述结果在进行了平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验后依然成立。在此基础上,提出加快推进碳交易试点政策的推广应用、有效提高产业集聚和工业能源效率水平、优化设计碳交易试点政策等建议。

Industrial energy conservation and emission reduction are crucial for China to achieve the double carbon'goals of energy sector.The policy effectiveness of carbon trading pilot policies is an important means of determining the magnitude of industrial energy conservation and emission reduction effects.However,existing research lacks the use of both industrial agglomeration(IA)and industrial energy efficiency(IEE)as mediating variables to study the intrinsic mechanism of carbon trading pilot policies on industrial energy conservation and emission reduction.Therefore,this study takes the carbon trading pilot policy implemented in 2013 as a quasi natural experiment,based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2020,and uses a multi-period difference in difference model to empirically test whether the carbon trading pilot policy has energy-saving and emission reduction effects on the industrial sector,as well as the transmission mechanism and strength of the effects between the two.The main research found that carbon trading pilot policies can directly promote industrial energy conservation and emission reduction,indirectly through industrial agglomeration and industrial energy efficiency,and the policy effect has a time lag.The energy-saving effect is significant in the second year after policy implementation,and the emission reduction effect is significant in the second and fourth years.The industrial energy conservation and emission reduction effects of the carbon trading pilot policy show a trend of eastern>western>central.The above results still hold true after conducting parallel trend tests and placebo tests.On this basis,suggestions are proposed to accelerate the promotion and application of carbon trading pilot policies,effectively improve industrial agglomeration and industrial energy efficiency levels,and optimize the design of carbon trading pilot policies.