市场一体化、汇率变动与长三角对外开放模式选择

Market Integration,Exchange Rate Changes and the Choice of the Opening-up Model of the Yangtze River Delta

基于2010—2020年长三角41个城市的面板数据,应用固定效应模型考察汇率变动对地区出口和OFDI的促进作用,进一步采用调节效应模型考察市场一体化指数如何影响汇率变动促进出口和OFDI。研究发现:人民币贬值对长三角出口和OFDI都有一定的促进作用;引入市场一体化指数与汇率变动的交互项发现,市场一体化指数不调节人民币贬值对出口的促进作用,而显著约束了人民币贬值对OFDI的促进作用。经过异质性检验发现,在非核心城市和欠发达城市,人民币贬值显著促进出口和OFDI,市场一体化指数仍然不影响贬值对出口的促进作用,而约束贬值对OFDI的促进作用。因此,各个地区应当建立应对汇率变动的预警机制,构建更高水平的对外开放模式。

Based on the panel data from 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2020,this paper uses a fixed-effects model to examine the promoting effect of exchange rate changes on regional exports and OFDI.Furthermore,a moderation effects model is applied to investigate how the market integration index affects the promotion of exports and OFDI by exchange rate changes.The research finds that RMB depreciation has a certain promoting effect on exports and OFDI in the Yangtze River Delta.The introduction of the market integration index and the interaction term with exchange rate changes reveals that the market integration index does not moderate the promoting effect of RMB depreciation on exports but significantly constrains its promoting effect on OFDI.Heterogeneity tests show that in non-core cities and underdeveloped cities,RMB depreciation significantly promotes exports and OFDI,and the market integration index still does not affect the promoting effect of depreciation on exports but constrains its effect on OFDI.Therefore,regions should establish early warning measures for exchange rate changes and build a higher level of open economic systems.