过度负债如何影响经济:述评与反思

Literature Review and Theoretical Reflections on How Over-lndebtedness Affects the Economy

随着各国金融体系日渐发达,基本经济活动越来越依赖于债务推动,债务也相应成为现代经济中关联金融和实体经济的一个关键纽带。但到目前为止,我们对债务和经济之间关系的理解还非常不足。本文从宏微观相结合的角度,对相关文献进行了综合与反思,在此基础上归纳了过度负债影响经济运行的机制和路径。本文认为,对债务问题及其可持续性的理解,最关键是要将其置于债务如何被决定、被分配和被运用的动态过程中,从债务所指向的生产(消费)主体及其活动来动态地理解债务的总量和结构如何最终引发了经济中供需的不平衡,以及由此导致的经济和社会后果。经分析发现:从微观基础来看,宏观视角下的高债务率之所以导致风险,原因是“不靠谱”的借款人和投资项目比率的不断上升;从宏观角度来看,债务过度的本质是一方面在消费端创造了无效或者过度的需求,另一方面在生产端未能实现供给的有效增加,两相作用之下,过度(无偿还能力)需求和产能过剩所导致的债务违约就会大面积出现,最终演变为宏观层面的债务危机。此外,本文还对现有研究中一些亟待解决但尚未解决的问题进行了总结和反思。

As financial systems in many countries become more developed,basic economic activities have become increasingly debt-driven,with debt serving as a key link between finance and the real economy.However,our understanding of the relationship between debt and the economy is still far from adequate.This paper examines relevant literature on the link between debt and economic activity from a combined macro and micro perspective and describes how over-indebtedness affects economic performance.The paper explains how debt triggers an imbalance between supply and demand in the economy,leading to economic and social consequences.The analysis also points out that from a macro perspective,high debt ratios lead to risks because of the rising ratio of"unreliable"borrowers and investment projects.The essence of debt overhang is the creation of ineffective or excessive demand on the consumption side and the failure to realize an effective increase in supply on the production side.