基于灰色马尔可夫模型的天津市卫生总费用预测研究

Research on forecast of total health expenditure in Tianjin City based on grey Markov model

目的分析2011-2020年天津市卫生总费用及其筹资结构的情况,并预测“十四五”期间(2021-2025年)天津市卫生总费用与其筹资结构的未来发展走向,为制订并改进相关单位的健康方针、有效减轻居民就医负担提供合理建议。方法以2011-2020年天津市统计年鉴相关数据为基础,建立灰色马尔可夫预测模型,利用Excel软件分析卫生总费用及其筹资结构发展现状,并对“十四五”期间天津市卫生总费用和筹资结构的变化趋势进行预测分析。结果2011-2020年,天津市卫生总费用从411.10亿元增加到907.87亿元,年均增速为12.08%,政府卫生支出占比从25.4%减少到21.1%,社会卫生支出从37.8%上升到49.8%,而个人卫生支出方面的比例由36.8%降低至29.1%。“十四五”期间天津市卫生总费用持续稳步增长,年增长率有所下降,个人卫生支出比重下降为25.68%。结论天津市卫生费用筹资结构逐渐趋于合理化,社会卫生支出成为卫生总费用的主要资金来源,但个人卫生支出占比仍有下降余地,应稳步降低个人卫生支出比重,以减轻居民个人就医负担。

Objective To analyse the total health expenditure and its financing structure in Tianjin City from 2011-2020,and forecast the future development of the total health expenditure and its financing structure in Tianjin City during the 14th Five-Year Plan period(2021-2025),so as provide reasonable suggestions for formulating and improving the health policy of relevant units and effectively reducing the burden of medical care on residents.Methods Based on the relevant data from the Tianjin Statistical Yearbook from 2011-2020,a grey Markov prediction model was established.Excel software was used to analyze the current development status of total health expenditure and financing structure,and the trend of changes in total health expenditure and financing structure in Tianjin City during the 14th Five Year Plan period were predicted and analyzed.Results From 2011-2020,the total health expenditure in Tianjin City increased from 41.11 billion yuan to 90.787 billion yuan,with an average annual growth rate of 12.08%.The proportion of government health expenditure decreased from 25.4%to 21.1%,social health expenditure increased from 37.8%to 49.8%,and the proportion of personal health expenditure decreased from 36.8%to 29.1%.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the total health expenditure in Tianjin City continued to steadily increase,with an annual growth rate decreasing.The proportion of personal health expenditure decreased to 25.68%.Conclusion The financing structure of health expenditure in Tianjin City is gradually becoming more rational,with social health expenditure becoming the main source of funding for total health expenditure.However,there is still room for a decrease in the proportion of personal health expenditure.The proportion of personal health expenditure should be steadily reduced in order to alleviate the burden of individual medical treatment for residents.