新型城镇化对共同富裕的影响研究——基于Random Forests模型和Loess模型的分析

Research on the impacts of new urbanization on common prosperity:Analysis based on Random Forests Model and Loess model

基于2010—2021年31个省份的相关数据,运用综合评分法测度我国的新型城镇化水平和共同富裕程度,结合Random Forests模型和Loess模型分析新型城镇化对共同富裕的影响效应及其成因。研究发现,新型城镇化总体上可以促进共同富裕,但存在维度异质性与空间异质性。各维度对共同富裕的影响力从高至低排序依次为经济城镇化、人口城镇化、社会城镇化和生态城镇化,各区域按相关性从大到小排序依次为东北、东部、中部和西部地区。不同维度的城镇化对不同区域的共同富裕影响程度不同,对东部、中部和东北地区影响最大的是经济城镇化,对西部地区影响最大的是人口城镇化。基于此,提出以人的全面发展为目标、以经济城镇化为重点、以差异化发展策略为前提、以公共服务均等化为突破口推进共同富裕的政策建议。

Based on the macro data of 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2021,this study uses the comprehensive scoring method to measure the level of urbanization and the degree of common prosperity.Combined with the Random Forests model and the Loess model,this study analyzes the impact and reasons of the new urbanization on common prosperity.The results show that the new urbanization can generally promote common prosperity,but there are dimensional heterogeneity and spatial heterogeneity.In descending order of influence by dimension,they are economic urbanization,population urbanization,social urbanization,and ecological urbanization,and in descending order of relevance for regions,they are Northeast,East,Central and West.Moreover,there are different impacts on the common prosperity of different regions by different dimensions of urbanization.Economic urbanization has the greatest impact on common prosperity in the eastern,central,and northeastern,while population urbanization has the greatest impact on the western.Therefore,in order to promote common prosperity,it must be based on the goal of all-round development of people,the focus of economic urbanization,the premise of differentiated development strategies,and the path of equalization of public services.