试论哈萨克斯坦托卡耶夫政府核心决策层的构成及其影响(2021—2023年)

On the Composition and Influences of the Core Decision-making Body of the Tokayev Government in Kazakhstan(2021-2023)

2022年“一月事件”过后,哈萨克斯坦政坛人事方面发生了天翻地覆的变化,主要表现包括:相当数量的纳扎尔巴耶夫时代的“政治红人”已经或准备告别政坛;在整个政治现代化改革过程中,涌现了以托卡耶夫为中心的新势力群体。那么,托卡耶夫政府核心决策层的成员有哪些?重组后的决策层对哈萨克斯坦内政与外交有着怎样的影响?通过重点使用“哈萨克斯坦总统官网”和“哈萨克国际通讯社”两个数据库的资料可以发现,重组后的托卡耶夫政府核心决策层正逐渐呈现出人员专业化、构成集中化、成分去“纳”化和成员年轻化四个特点。新型核心决策层成员正在积极地参与到哈萨克斯坦国家内外政策的制定过程中,其中部分核心成员对国内外政治决策有显而易见的影响。考察2022年“一月事件”后托卡耶夫启动的政治改革,以及俄乌冲突后哈政府应对俄暂停里海管道联盟(CPC管道)运输原油这两个案例,能够侧面印证托卡耶夫政府核心决策层对国家重大决策的影响。目前来看,经过两次较大规模的人员调整,托卡耶夫政府核心决策层已基本成型,但对哈萨克斯坦今后发展的影响仍需持续观察。

After the“January Events”of 2022,Kazakhstan's political scene underwent drastic changes,including the departure of a considerable number of political elites from the Nazarbayev era,either already having left or preparing to do so.In the course of political modernization reforms,a new power group centered around President Tokayev emerged.So,who are the members of Tokayev's core decision-making team?What impact does the restructured decision-making body have on Kazakhstan's domestic and foreign policies?Research using the“Presidential website of Kazakhstan”and the“Kazakhstan International News Agency”databases reveals that the restructured core decision-making body of the Tokayev government is gradually displaying four characteristics,namely,specialization of personnel,concentration of composition,reduction in“Nazarbayev-era”influence,and younger members.Members of the new core decision-making body are actively involved in shaping Kazakhstan's national and international policies,with some having a noticeable impact on political decisions both domestically and abroad.An examination of the political reforms initiated by Tokayev after the January 2022 events,as well as Kazakhstan's response to Russia's temporary suspension of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium(CPC)transporting oil in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,provides indirect evidence of the significant influence of Tokayev's government's core decision-making team on major national decisions.Currently,after two major personnel adjustments,Tokayev's government's core decision-making body has essentially taken shape,but its impact on Kazakhstan's future development still requires ongoing observation.