撤县设区后农户收入提升了吗?——基于双重差分法的政策评估

Did Rural Residents Income Improve after Withdrawing Counties into Districts and Establishment of Districts?--Policy Evaluation Based on Difference in Differences Model

撤县设区是近年来中国实现快速城市化过程中的一项重要政策。那么,在“农业县”向“市辖区”转化的过程中,农户的收入水平提升了吗?基于2006—2020年县域面板数据,运用多期双重差分模型探究撤县设区对当地农户收入的影响,并对估计结果进行稳健性检验。研究发现,撤县设区政策的实施显著降低了被撤并县的农户收入。一方面,地方政府为实现快速城市化,会将较多的耕地转化为建设用地,从而降低农村人均资源保有量;另一方面,撤县设区也会影响原县级政府的财政支出安排,导致财政支农资金出现“越位“”错位”等问题,从而降低农户收入。进一步研究发现,发展普惠金融与财政权力下放能够作为撤县设区降低农户收入的纠偏机制。

Achieving common prosperity is not only an essential requirement of the socialist system but also a crucial goal for China to realize socialist modernization.The overall improvement of income levels in rural areas is paramount in fulfilling this requirement.The administrative district restructuring method of“withdrawing counties into districts”serves not only as a significant means to promote urbanization but also as a vital tool to stimulate regional economic development and facilitate urban expansion.Distinguishing itself from existing research perspectives on administrative district restructuring,this paper focuses on rural areas as the research unit and employs the perspective on rural residents’income,enriching the understanding of the policy effects of the“withdrawing counties into districts”reform.Using the period from 2006 to 2020 as a quasi-natural experiment for the reform of“withdrawing counties into districts”in China,this paper employs a multi-time point Difference-in-Differences(DID)model to investigate the impact of the reform on rural residents’income.Various econometric methods are applied to test the robustness of the baseline regression results.The following conclusions are reached:(1)While existing academic research has confirmed the positive impact of“withdrawing counties into districts”on regional economic growth,But it is difficult to reconcile economic growth with income equity.Under the influence of this government-driven urbanization reform,local governments,aiming for rapid urbanization,tend to convert a considerable amount of arable land into construction land.This increases the resource endowment pressure on rural residents and reduces the per capita resource holding in rural areas.The decrease in the financial autonomy also affects the development planning of the original county governments,leading to lack and misallocation of funds for agricultural support.Consequently,the“withdrawing counties into districts”reform significantly reduces the rural residents’income in the areas that have been merged.Results from parallel trends tests also affirm that the decrease in income for farmers in merged counties is attributed to the effect of the““withdrawing counties into districts””policy rather than other unobservable factors.(2)Based on the results of the baseline regression,this paper argues that the adoption of corrective mechanisms to improve the impact of the“withdrawing counties into districts”reform is a more important issue.Therefore,through further analysis,it is found that developing inclusive finance and decentralization of fiscal power can have a positive moderating effect on the impact of“withdrawing counties into districts”reform,and therefore these initiatives can be used as corrective mechanisms in the process of“withdrawing counties into districts”reform.So as to realize the positive effects of“withdrawing counties into districts”reform in terms of people’s livelihood.