自然资本对中国经济增长的深层影响及机制

In-depth impact of natural capital on China's economic growth and its mechanisms

自然资本是经济增长的重要物质支撑,对可持续发展具有关键作用。该研究将多类经济增长理论的代理变量共同纳入扩展的MRW模型,利用BMA方法解决模型不确定性难题,明确区分可再生自然资本与不可再生自然资本,兼顾依赖度与丰裕度,基于省级面板数据考察自然资本对中国经济增长的直接与深层影响,并借助CART算法开展多重机制分析。研究发现:①兼顾表层理论与深层理论构建模型,自然资本对中国经济增长具有深层影响,且影响方向因代理指标而异,其依赖度“诅咒”效应明显但丰裕度“祝福”效应突出,该全景视角可以调和已有文献对“资源诅咒”存在性的严重分歧。②两类自然资本的增长效应迥然不同,可再生自然资本的影响符合“资源中性”假说,不可再生自然资本依赖度的“诅咒”效应和丰裕度的“祝福”效应都很强烈,其对经济增长的整体效应取决于资源利用模式。③高物质资本积累机制下,自然资本依赖度对经济增长的“诅咒”效应消失,而其丰裕度对经济增长的“祝福”效应显著提升,城市化率和纬度分别从发展阶段和地理区位视角丰富并深化物质资本积累的调节机制。中国各地应立足自身资源禀赋与经济发展阶段,将自然资源租金用于国民财富再投资和资本组合优化,通过自然资源保护利用与投资补偿摆脱“资源诅咒”,走上经济发展与生态文明双赢的可持续发展之路。

As a fundamental factor driving economic growth,natural capital plays a key role in sustainable development.This paper in⁃corporates various economic growth proxy variables into the MRW model and uses the BMA method to tackle the uncertainty issue of the model.Based on China's provincial-level panel data,this paper examines the impact of renewable natural capital and non-renew⁃able natural capital on the country's economic growth and then carries out multiple mechanism analysis with the CART algorithm.The main findings are:①Natural capital has a significant deep impact on China's economic growth in models incorporating proximate and fundamental theories,and the direction of natural capital's impact varies with proxy indicators,which shows a significant‘Curse’effect of dependence and a‘Blessing’effect of abundance.This panoramic perspective can reconcile the serious disagreement on‘Resource Curse’among the literature.②The effects of renewable natural capital are in line with the‘Resource neutral’hypothesis,while nonrenewable natural capital has a stronger impact on economic growth in terms of both the‘Curse’effect of dependence and the‘Bless⁃ing’effect of abundance,and the overall effect on economic growth depends on patterns of resource use.③Under high physical capital accumulation,natural capital has a more fundamental impact on economic growth,and the‘Blessing’effect of abundance has been sig⁃nificantly enhanced.Based on their resource endowments and economic development levels,all provinces should reinvest natural re⁃source rents in national wealth to mitigate the‘Resource Curse’through effective protection of natural capital and compensation from reinvestment.This is a reasonable way to embark on a win-win sustainable development path of economic development and ecological civilization.