养老保险统筹促进了劳动力流动与区域平衡发展吗

Does Pension Insurance Pooling Reform Promote Labor Mobility and Regional Balance Development?

在加快构建新发展格局、建设全国统一大市场的背景下,如何更好地促进劳动力流动是当前学术界关注的重要问题之一。基于养老保险省级统筹改革的准自然实验,利用2010—2020年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,从理论和实证两个方面探讨了养老保险统筹改革对劳动力流动的影响及作用机制。研究发现,省级统筹促进了劳动力跨地区流动,该结论在经过一系列内生性检验和稳健性检验后仍然成立。异质性分析发现,省级统筹对劳动力流动的促进作用在男性、中青年以及低技能、低收入水平群体中更显著,且对第三产业占比高和养老保险制度覆盖率高的地区影响更明显。机制检验结果显示,省级统筹改革通过“就业激励效应”和“未来收入预期效应”促进了劳动力流动。进一步分析表明,省级统筹有效促进了区域平衡发展。本研究为顺利推进养老保险全国统筹及促进劳动力跨地区流动提供了经验依据,对推进区域平衡发展与劳动力统一大市场建设具有重要启示。

Under the background of accelerating the construction of a new development pattern and perfecting the national unified market,how to better promote labor mobility is one of the important issues of current academic concern.Based on the quasi-natural experiment of pension insurance provincial pooling reform and the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2010 to 2020,this paper discusses the influence and mechanism of pension insurance provincial pooling reform on labor mobility from both theoret⁃ical and empirical aspects.It is found that the provincial pooling promotes the cross-regional labor mobility,and this conclusion is still valid after a series of endogeneity tests and robustness tests.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the promotion effect of provincial pooling on labor mobility is more significant in men,young and middle-aged,and low-skill and low-income groups,and that the ef⁃fect is more pronounced in areas with a high proportion of tertiary industries and a high level of coverage of the pension insurance system.The mechanism test results show that the provincial pooling reform promotes labor mobility through the“employment incen⁃tive effect”and the“future income expectation effect”.Further analysis shows that provincial pooling promotes regional balance de⁃velopment.This study provides an empirical basis for the smooth promotion of pension insurance national pooling and the promotion of labor mobility across regions,and it has important implications for strengthening the regional balanced development and the con⁃struction of a unified labor market.