城镇化推进模式与我国农业低碳全要素生产率——来自双源夜间灯光证据

Urbanization Promotion Model and China's Agricultural Low-Carbon Total Factor Productivity:Evidence from Dual-Source Night Lights

本文利用卫星监测的数据构造夜间灯光复合指数表征城镇化水平,运用Superefficiency Ray Slacks-Based Measure(Super-RSBM)模型和Global Malmquist-Luenberger(GML)指数测算2000—2021年我国农业低碳全要素生产率(TFP),实证检验城镇化对我国农业低碳TFP的影响及其作用机制,并考察紧凑集约型和规模扩张型两种城镇化推进模式对农业低碳TFP的异质性影响。研究发现,从全国来看,城镇化推进与农业低碳TFP之间具有显著的U型关系,且邻近地区农业低碳TFP的提升对本地区产生示范效应;分区域来看,这种U型关系主要体现在农业适度发展区,而农业优化发展区的城镇化与农业低碳TFP之间呈现显著的正向线性关系,表明农业优化发展区应发挥“领头羊”作用,带动适度发展区早日跨越U型曲线的拐点,实现城镇化带动农业绿色发展;紧凑集约型的城镇化深度推进模式能够显著提升农业低碳TFP,而规模扩张型的城镇化广度推进模式降低了农业低碳TFP;农业低碳技术进步、农村劳动力转移、规模效应、农业产业链延伸和农村居民可支配收入增加是城镇化影响农业低碳TFP的主要途径。

By using the data of satellite monitoring to construct a light composite index to characterize the level of urbanization,this paper uses the Super-efficiency Ray Slacks-Based Measure(Super-RSBM)model and the Global Malmquist-Luenberger(GML)index to measure China's agricultural low-carbon total factor productivity(TFP)from 2000 to 2021,and conduct an empirical investigation on the impact of urbanization on China's agricultural low-carbon TFP and its mechanism.In particular,the heterogeneous effects of two urbanization promotion modes,i.e.compact intensive pattern and scale expansion pattern,on agricultural low-carbon TFP are examined.The research shows that,as far as the whole country is concerned,there is a significant"U-shaped"relationship between urbanization promotion and agricultural low-carbon TFP,and the improvement of agricultural low-carbon TFP in adjacent areas has produced a demonstration effect in the local area.In terms of sub-regions,this U-shaped relationship is mainly reflected in the moderate agricultural development area,while the urbanization level and low-carbon TFP in the agricultural optimized development area have a positive and significant linear relationship,indicating that the agricultural optimized development areas should play the role of the"leader",radiate and drive the moderately developed area to cross the inflection point of the U-shaped curve as soon as possible,and realize urbanization to promote the low-carbon development of agriculture.The compact intensive urbanization in-depth pattern has a significant positive impact on low-carbon agricultural TFP,while the scale expansion urbanization in-breadth pattern has the opposite effect.Low carbon technology advancement,rural labor transfer,scale effect,extension of agricultural industry chain and increase in disposable income of rural residents are the main ways through which urbanization affects low-carbon TFP in agriculture.