基于空间距离改进的航线网络级联失效模型

An improved cascading failure model of airline network based on spatial distance factor

为准确分析航线网络在多种干扰事件影响下的级联失效过程,首先,对以往研究的节点过载、节点状态识别和节点负载-容量关系三个部分进行整合,引入容量参数α、β和过载系数γ,建立一个综合性的航线网络级联失效模型;在此基础上,考虑实际空间距离因素,对传统的全局负载重分配策略进行改进,提出以丧失运输功能的机场为圆心、实际k倍平均航线里程为半径的圆形负载重分配策略。然后,以国内航线网络为例,开展随机、蓄意两种攻击策略下的仿真。结果表明:基于空间距离的负载重分配策略更具有普适性,即传统全局负载重分配策略仅是其中一个特例;同时,航线网络级联失效结果与负载分配半径密切相关,确定合理的负载分配半径,对缓解航线网络级联失效影响有重要意义。

To accurately analyze the cascading failure effects of an airline network under various hazardous events,such as deliberate destruction,severe weather,and mechanical failures,we first integrated a non-linear relationship between node load and capacity,and three common node overload states with normal,congestion,and failure,introduced node capacity parametersα,βand node overload coefficientγ,then established a comprehensive cascading failure model for an airline network.Secondly,based on it,we fully considered actual operational characteristics of civil aviation,i.e.,flight spatial distance factor to improve traditional global node load redistribution strategy,and proposed a circular node load redistribution strategy,which takes airports losing transport function as the center and actual k times distance of average flight mileage as the radius.Then,taking a domestic airline network as an example,simulation verification under two attack strategies of random and deliberate is carried out.The results show that the improved node load redistribution strategy based on spatial distance factor is more universal,that is,the traditional global node load redistribution strategy is only a special case.Furthermore,the cascading failure results of the airline network are closely related to node load redistribution radius,and usually,there exists a critical value.When the node load redistribution radius is less than this critical value,the number of failed airports increases together with a larger node load redistribution radius.Conversely,if the node load redistribution radius is greater than this value,the number of failed airports changes to decrease as the node load redistribution radius increases.Therefore,determining a reasonable node load redistribution radius based on the actual influence situation of an airline network may provide great assistance for alleviating the cascading failure impact of an airline network.