STPA和CREAM方法在飞行冲突调配人因差错研究中的应用

Application of STPA and CREAM methods in the study of human error in flight traffic deconfliction

为了研究管制员飞行冲突调配的人因差错问题,进而有效评估管制员解决飞行冲突的可靠性,以保障空中交通的安全运行,提出系统理论过程分析(System Theoretic Process Analysis, STPA)与认知可靠性与失误分析方法(Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method, CREAM)相结合的人因可靠性分析方法。首先,通过STPA方法构建系统控制模型,识别不安全控制行为(Unsafe Control Action, UCA)以及致因因素,找到管制员在调配飞行冲突过程中可能存在的差错行为;其次,基于CREAM扩展法对管制员的差错行为进行定量分析,得到管制员调配飞行冲突的人因失误概率。研究显示:使用该方法能够系统、全面地识别出管制员在调配飞行冲突过程中出现的差错行为,进而计算管制员飞行冲突调配的人因失误概率。实例分析表明该方法可以预测管制员在飞行冲突调配过程中的人因失误概率及可靠性,为管制员人因可靠性分析提供了新思路。

Aiming at the problem of human error in the flight conflict deployment of controllers,the System Theory Process Analysis(STPA)and Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method(CREAM)extended method were combined to analyze the human reliability of controllers.Through the STPA method,the traffic deconfliction process is analyzed,the purpose of the analysis is defined,the system control structure model is constructed,the Unsafe Control Behavior(UCA)is identified according to the control structure model,and then the cause of unsafe behavior is identified,and then the controller may be wrong in traffic deconfliction process according to the STPA cause scenario analysis,and a total of 22 error behaviors are identified.Based on STPA analysis,the error behavior of controllers is quantitatively analyzed based on the CREAM extended method,and the human error probability of flight conflicts allocated by controllers is obtained.Taking the unsafe incident that occurred during traffic deconfliction of the controller as an example,the analysis of four kinds of error behaviors in this event is analyzed,experts are invited to evaluate the specific environment at the time of the incident,and the total weight factor of the four error behaviors is finally calculated according to the sequence of flight conflict events allocated by the controller.The probability of human error in traffic deconfliction of controllers is 0.00381 and the reliability is 0.996.The results show that the method can systematically and comprehensively identify the error behavior of controllers in the process of traffic deconfliction,can predict the probability of human error of controllers in traffic deconfliction.Besides,this study prove through case analysis that this method can predict the probability of human error of controllers in traffic deconfliction,and provide reference for controller human factor reliability analysis.