耦合均值-相关性的起重伤害事故致因ZIP模型研究

Cause ZIP model of the lifting injury accident based on the coupling influence of mean-and-correlation

近些年来,起重伤害事故高发频发,导致了较大的直接经济损失和人员伤亡,受到行业的高度关注。为探究起重伤害事故致因的影响程度,采集2011—2021年376份起重伤害事故调查报告,依据事故致因24Model和系统安全分析法识别事故致因,构建起重伤害事故致因的零膨胀泊松回归模型(Zero-Inflated Poisson,ZIP),并通过Vuong方法和拟合优度检验准则进行检验;综合考虑事故致因发生频次的均值、致因和事故发生的相关性,运用弹性分析方法对事故致因的影响程度进行定量排序。结果表明:ZIP回归模型拟合效果优于泊松回归模型,各事故致因对起重伤害事故的影响程度排序为安全监管不到位C_(6)(T_(k)=1.0221)、安全意识淡薄H_(1)(T_(k)=0.5117)、作业人员违规作业H_(3)(T_(k)=0.4758)、作业人员无证上岗H_(2)(T_(k)=0.2116)、专项施工方案不合格C_(7)(T_(k)=0.1234)和结构构件破坏或连接不可靠M_(3)(T_(k)=0.1045)。研究从事故致因发生频次的均值、致因和事故发生的相关性两个维度刻画事故致因对起重伤害事故的影响程度,为起重伤害事故风险分级管控提供了新的研究思路和方法。

In recent years,lifting injury accidents have continued to be common,resulting in significant direct economic losses and casualties.These accidents have received high attention from the industry.To explore the level of influence of the causes of lifting injury accidents,this study proposes a hierarchical management and control of accident risk for the safety management of lifting operations after collecting the accident reports and establishing a Zero-Inflated Poisson(ZIP)regression model.A 24Model and system safety analysis method are used to identify accident causes from 376 investigation reports of lifting injury accidents from China(20112021).27 causes are identified to form the accident cause system.The Poisson model and the ZIP regression model of the causes of lifting injury accidents are constructed with the accident classification as the dependent variable and 27 accident causes as independent variables.The Vuong method and Goodness of fit test criteria are used to test the two models.By comprehensively considering the average frequency of accident causes and the correlation between causes and accidents,the elastic analysis method is used to quantitatively rank the degree of impact of accident causes.The research results show that the fit of the ZIP regression model is better than that of the Poisson regression model.The degree of influence of each cause on the lifting injury accidents is ranked as follows:inadequate safety supervision C_(6)(T_(k)=1.0221),weak safety awareness H_(1)(T_(k)=0.5117),illegal operation of operators H_(3)(T_(k)=0.4758),unlicensed employment of operators H_(2)(T_(k)=0.2116),unqualified special construction plan C_(7)(T_(k)=0.1234),damaged structural components or unreliable connection of structural components M_(3)(T_(k)=0.1045).This study characterizes the impact of accident causes on lifting injury accidents from two dimensions-the average frequency of accident causes and the correlation between causes and accidents,providing new research ideas and methods for risk classification and control of lifting injury accidents.