装配式建筑物化阶段碳排放计算及影响因素研究

Research on calculation and influencing factors of carbon emission during the materialization phase of prefabricated buildings

为进一步分析装配式建筑物化阶段碳排放及关键影响因素,研究通过碳排放系数法,建立装配式建筑物化阶段碳排放量计算模型;在数据量化后的基础上,从工程管理视角,利用结构方程模型深度分析影响装配式建筑物化阶段碳排放的影响因素,从项目概况、建材消耗、运输与仓储、能源消耗、施工组织与管理、项目物化阶段碳排放量6个方面建立14个关系假设。通过分析案例得出:建材生产阶段在整个物化阶段的碳排放量最高,占92.01%。在结构方程分析中,建材消耗对项目物化阶段碳排放量的直接影响最大,而项目概况、施工组织与管理对项目物化阶段碳排放量的综合影响排前两位。研究结果可为相关参与方制定低碳策略提供一定的理论参考。

To further analyze carbon emission and its key influencing factors during the materialization phase of prefabricated buildings,this study firstly determined the system boundary of this phase,and then by using the carbon emission coefficient method,established a carbon emission calculation model for this phase.On the basis of quantified data,a structural equation model was used to analyze the carbon emission factors in this phase in an in-depth manner from the perspective of engineering management.Fourteen relationship hypotheses were proposed in six aspects:project overview,building materials consumption,transportation and storage,energy consumption,construction organization and management,and carbon emissions in the materialization phase of projects,purposed to fit and evaluate the influencing factors.Through case analyses,it is concluded that the carbon emissions in the production stage of construction materials are the highest in the whole materialization process according to the carbon emission calculation model for prefabricated building stages,accounting for 92.01%of the total emissions,followed by those in the construction stage(5.6%),building materials transportation stage(1.46%),component transportation stage(0.63%),and component production stage(0.3%).As found in the structural equation analysis,the consumption of building materials delivers the strongest direct impact on carbon emissions in the materialization phase of projects;among the observation variables of building materials consumption,the material selection gives the largest influence coefficient,i.e.0.93,followed by the utilization rate of low-carbon materials(0.88)and the recycling and utilization of materials(0.83).The comprehensive impact of the project overview,construction organization,and management on carbon emissions in the materialization phase of projects are ranked in the top two,followed by building materials consumption,transportation and storage,and energy consumption.Reduction of carbon emissions should be started from the initial stage of projects,with a focus on control over the production stage of building materials;meanwhile,it is necessary to optimize the scheme design and adopt new processes,new technologies,and other measures,so as to reduce carbon emissions.The results of this study provide some theoretical references for the formulation of low-carbon strategies.