基于上海地铁的城市轨道交通运营风险评价

Risk Assessment of Urban Rail Transit Operation Based on Shanghai Metro

如今,城市轨道交通发展迅速,但风险频率却依旧很高,且后续处理往往不尽人意,因此,进一步提升安全管理工作水平,加强城市轨道交通运营企业运营安全风险管理,以及做好风险应急预案对策,是确保安全运营、防范交通事故发生的重中之重。文章对上海轨道交通运营行车日志数据进行筛选整理,得到上海轨道交通运营的风险频率,针对风险频率较高的风险因素,利用层次分析法和模糊综合法对上海轨道交通风险进行风险评估,得出各项风险的权重和评价指标,判定上海轨道交通的风险等级与主要危险因素。

Nowadays,urban rail transit develops rapidly,but the risk frequency is still high,and the follow-up treatment is often unsatisfactory.Therefore,further improving the level of safety management,strengthening the operational safety risk management of urban rail transit operators,and doing a good job in risk emergency plans are the top priority to ensure safe operation and prevent traffic accidents.This paper selects and organizes the traffic log data of Shanghai rail transit operation to obtain the risk frequency of Shanghai rail transit operation.Aiming at the risk factors with high risk frequency,the paper uses AHP and fuzzy synthesis method to carry out risk assessment of Shanghai rail transit risk,obtains the weight and evaluation index of each risk,and determines the risk grade and main risk factors of Shanghai rail transit.