基于模糊综合评价的水下采油树结构可靠性分析

Structural Reliability Analysis of Subsea X-tree Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

针对水下采油树结构可靠性分析,提出一种基于模糊综合评价理论的水下采油树结构可靠性分析方法。首先,通过分析不同厂家水下采油树构型,确定水下采油树的典型结构构型及组成,分析水下采油树在运行过程中所受的外载荷;其次,采用专家打分以及模糊综合评价法求得故障树底事件失效率,通过定量分析求解顶事件失效率、可靠度及可靠寿命曲线等可靠性指标;最后,对故障树进行重要度分析及失效率变化对系统结构可靠性的影响,结果表明:“树本体内磨损”的关键重要度最高,对系统结构可靠性的影响最大,是结构中的薄弱环节,应予以关注。研究成果可为水下采油树结构的风险评估提供技术参考,对水下采油树的设计制造提供一定的指导意义。

In order to analyze the reliability of subsea X-tree structure,a reliability analysis method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory is proposed in this paper.Firstly,by analyzing the configuration of the subsea X-tree from different manufacturers,the typical structural configuration and composition of subsea X-tree are determined,and the external load of subsea X-tree during operation is analyzed.Then,expert scoring and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used to obtain the bottom event failure rate of the fault tree,and the top event failure rate,reliability and reliability life curve are solved by quantitative analysis.Finally,the importance analysis of the fault tree and the influence of failure rate change on the reliability of the system structure are carried out.The results show that the“internal wear of the tree”is the most important and has the greatest influence on the reliability of the system structure.It is the weak link in the structure and should be paid attention to.The research results can provide technical reference for the risk assessment of subsea X-Tree structure,and provide certain guidance for the design and manufacture of subsea X-Tree.