经济制度变迁对海洋经济发展的影响分析——以我国沿海地区为例

The Influence of Economic Institutional Changes on Marine Economic Development:A Case Study of Coastal Areas in China

经济制度变迁对海洋经济发展有着重要影响。通过熵值法测算沿海地区经济制度水平,运用标准差椭圆及重心分析法将沿海地区经济制度水平空间分布变化特征可视化,最后使用向量自回归模型对三大海洋经济圈经济制度变迁对海洋经济增速、海洋产业结构高级化的影响进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)我国沿海地区经济制度变迁时间上分为1997-2002年、2003-2015年、2016-2018年3个时间阶段;空间上,经济制度重心呈现向北偏移的趋势,北部沿海地区经济制度水平提升较快,沿海地区经济制度水平在空间分布上逐渐趋于均衡。(2)在1997-2018年间,我国海洋经济依次呈现出缓慢发展、迅速发展、转型发展的阶段性特征;特别是北部沿海省份海洋经济发展势头强劲,但其产业结构仍有待优化升级。(3)我国沿海地区经济制度变迁影响海洋经济发展,且经济制度变迁对海洋经济增速的影响与其对海洋产业结构高级化的影响相比更为显著;经济制度变迁对海洋经济发展的影响具有地域差异性,三大海洋经济圈海洋经济发展受经济制度变迁影响由大到小为:北部海洋经济圈>东部海洋经济圈>南部海洋经济圈。

The changes of economic institution has an important influence on marine economic development.This paper uses entropy method to calculate the economic institutional level in coastal areas,uses standard deviational ellipse and gravity center to visualize the spatial variation characteristics of economic institutional level,and finally vector auto-regression model was applied to demonstrate the influence of economic institutional changes on the growth rate of marine economy and the advance of marine industrial structure in three major marine economic circles.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The economic institutional changes in coastal areas can be divided into three periods:1997-2002,2003-2015 and 2016-2018;In terms of spatial distribution,the gravity center of economic institution in coastal areas shifted to the north,the level of economic institution in northern coastal areas improved rapidly,and the level of economic institution in coastal areas gradually tended to be balanced in spatial distribution.(2)From 1997 to 2018,marine economy developed slowly,rapidly and in transition;The northern coastal provinces had a strong momentum of marine economic development,but it's marine industrial structure needs to be advanced.(3)Economic institutional changes affects the development of marine economy,economic institutional changes has a more significant influence on marine economic growth than on the advance of marine industrial structure;The influence of economic institutional changes on marine economic development is different in different regions,the three major marine economic circles are affected by economic institutional changes in descending order:northern marine economic circle>eastern marine economic circle>southern marine economic circle.