我国碳交易市场的弱式有效性检验及趋势分析

Weak-Form Efficiency Test and Trend Analysis of China’s Carbon Trading Market

文章基于各碳交易市场日均交易价格数据,采用RS分析法和ADF检验法对中国八个试点省市的碳排放权交易市场和全国碳市场进行研究,以检验市场是否达到弱式有效水平,并追踪有效性特征随时间的演变。结果表明:各试点碳交易市场以及全国碳市场均未达到弱式有效水平,总体仍处于发展阶段。随着政策的完善、市场参与者的增加和技术的进步,预期市场效率将得到提升。本文为研究碳金融市场的演进提供了理论基础,还为全国统一碳排放权交易市场的建设提供了政策效果的评估和反馈,以消除内部阻碍碳排放权流动的约束,提高资源配置效率。

This study investigates the weak-form efficiency and trends in China’s carbon trading markets.Using daily average trading price data,the RS analysis method and ADF test are employed to examine the carbon emission trading markets in eight pilot provinces and cities in China,as well as the national carbon market.The aim is to determine if these markets have reached weak-form efficiency and to track the evolution of their efficiency characteristics over time.The findings reveal that neither the pilot carbon trading markets nor the national carbon market have achieved weak-form efficiency,indicating they are still in the developmental stage.However,with policy refinement,an increase in market participants,and technological advancements,market efficiency is expected to improve.This paper provides a theoretical foundation for understanding the evolution of the carbon finance market and offers an assessment of the policy effects on developing a unified national carbon emission trading market.This aims to eliminate internal constraints on the flow of carbon emission rights and enhance resource allocation efficiency.