一体化背景下长三角水资源—能源—粮食系统的耦合协调研究

Research on Coupling Coordination of Water-Energy-Food System under Background of Yangtze River Delta Integration

利用2000—2020年长三角地区水资源、能源、粮食系统的相关数据,构建了长三角地区水资源—能源—粮食综合指标评估体系,并分析了长三角地区水资源—能源—粮食系统耦合协调的演变规律。结果表明:(1)长三角地区耦合度和耦合协调度均表现波动上升趋势,但在2008、2020年均呈现下跌趋势;(2)灯显机制评估结果表明,除2001年处于重警状态外,其他年份长三角地区的水资源—能源—粮食系统的协调发展水平稳步提升,实现了从中警、轻警到无警状态的三阶段跨越;(3)长三角地区耦合协调的空间异质性较为突出,各地区的多年平均协调度由大到小为:江苏>安徽>浙江>上海。最后,提出了增强水资源、能源、粮食系统之间的协调性和韧性,以及构建水资源—能源—粮食系统的风险预警机制、风险防控体系等政策建议。

Based on the relevant data of water-energy-food system in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2020,a comprehensive index evaluation system of water resources,energy and food in the Yangtze River Delta was constructed,and the evolution law of coupling and coordination of water-energy-food systems in the Yangtze River Delta was studied.The results show that:(1)The coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of the Yangtze River Delta show a fluctuating upward trend,but in 2008 and 2020,they showed a downward trend.(2)Besides being in a state of severe alarm in 2001,the coordinated development level of water-energy-food system in the Yangtze River Delta has been steadily improved in other periods,achieving a three-stage leap from moderate alarm,light alarm to no alarm state.(3)The spatial heterogeneity of coupling coordination in the Yangtze River Delta is relatively prominent.The average coordination degree of each region for many years is ranked as follows:Jiangsu>Anhui>Zhejiang>Shanghai.Based on this,some policy recommendations were put forward,such as enhancing the coordination and resilience among water resources,energy and food systems,and building a risk early warning mechanism and risk prevention and control system for the water-energy-food system.