我国粮食安全水平测度及影响因素研究——基于2012—2022年31个省级面板数据

Measurement and Influencing Factors of China’s Grain Security Level-Based on Panel Data from 31 Provinces from 2012 to 2022

基于中国2012—2022年31个省区市面板数据,综合采用全局熵值法、TOPSIS距离函数法和灰色关联分析法,实证研究了中国粮食安全水平及影响因素。研究结果显示,2012—2022年我国大部分省区市粮食安全水平呈先下降后上升的趋势。从分维度指标综合指数的时间演化趋势来看,大部分省份的粮食供给安全、粮食生产稳定性安全、粮食生产持续性安全维度综合指数呈上升趋势,粮食生产持续性安全维度综合指数的变动较大。灰色关联分析结果显示,单位面积产量、耕地面积比例、农业机械总动力、人均粮食占有量、粮食生产波动系数等因素与粮食安全水平关联度较大。未来,应增强耕地生产能力,确保耕地面积的基本稳定;加强农业基础设施建设,持续提升粮食供给保障能力;促进农业产业化发展,优化粮食生产结构和布局;加强农业风险管理,推动农业科技创新和应用。

This article is based on panel data from 31 provinces,regions,and cities in China from 2012 to 2022.The global entropy method,TOPSIS distance function method,and grey correlation analysis method are comprehensively used to empirically study the level of grain security and its influencing factors in China.The research results show that from 2012 to 2022,the level of grain security in most provinces and cities in China showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing.From the time evolution trend of the comprehensive index of sub dimensional indicators,it can be seen that the comprehensive index of grain supply security,grain production stability security,and grain production sustainability security in most provinces is on the rise,while the changes in the comprehensive index of grain production sustainability security are relatively fluctuating.The grey correlation analysis results show that factors such as unit area yield,proportion of cultivated land area,total power of agricultural machinery,per capita grain ownership,and fluctuation coefficient of grain production are highly correlated with the level of grain security.In the future,we should enhance the production capacity of arable land and ensure the basic stability of arable land area;Strengthen the construction of agricultural infrastructure and continuously improve the ability to guarantee grain supply;Promote the development of agricultural industrialization,optimize the structure and layout of grain production;Strengthen agricultural risk management,promote agricultural technology innovation and application.