湘江流域森林生态安全与新型城镇化质量协调发展及时空演变分析

Anlysis on the Coordinated Development and Spatial-Temporal Evolutionary Analysis between Forest Ecological Security and New Urbanization Quality in Xiangjiang River Basin

计算2005—2020年湘江流域森林生态安全指数、新型城镇化质量指数,采用协调发展指数、标准差椭圆模型、空间自相关分析两个系统的时空演变规律、耦合协调特征以及交互作用机理。结果显示:(1)研究时段内,湘江流域县域新型城镇化质量指数均值处于0.30~0.33,森林生态安全指数均值在0.51~0.72,协调发展指数在0.12~0.81,均呈现波动上升态势。(2)新型城镇化质量指数重心处于衡南县内,移动方向为“西南—西北—东北”;森林生态安全指数重心位于衡阳县与衡阳市区,移动方向为“东南—东南—西北”;协调发展重心位于衡阳县与衡阳市区,移动方向为“西南—西北—东北”。(3)森林生态安全与新型城镇化质量呈现显著的空间正相关性且空间差异性系数呈现出先减小后增大的发展趋势,其空间协调分布表现为先聚集后扩散的变化特征。

The article assesses the forest ecological security index and new urbanization quality index in the Xiangjiang River Basin between 2005 and 2020,utilizing the coordinated development index,standard deviation ellipse model,and spatial autocorrelation analysis to scrutinize the spatiotemporal patterns,coupled coordination characteristics,and mechanisms of interaction of the two systems.The findings revealed that:(1)During the research period,the average quality index of new urbanization in the Xiangjiang River Basin counties ranged from 0.30 to 0.33,the average forest ecological security index ranged from 0.51 to 0.72,and the coordinated development index ranged from 0.12 to 0.81,all showcasing a fluctuating upward trend.(2)The center of gravity for the new urbanization quality index is located within Hengnan County,moving in a direction from southwest to northwest then to northeast;the center of gravity for the forest ecological security index is located between Hengyang County and urban Hengyang,moving in a direction from southeast to southeast then to northwest;and the center of gravity for the coordinated development index is located between Hengyang County and urban Hengyang,moving in a direction from southwest to northwest then to northeast.(3)There is a significant positive spatial correlation between forest ecological security and new urbanization quality,with the spatial variance coefficient displaying a trend of first decreasing then increasing,reflecting a pattern of initial concentration followed by diffusion in their spatial distribution.