中国天然林碳汇贡献及碳汇潜力研究

The Contribution and Potential of Natural Forests to Carbon Sink in China

采用生物量转换因子法核算全国天然林碳储量和碳密度,利用Logistic生长方程预测2023-2063年全国天然林碳汇潜力。结果表明:1)40 a间全国天然林碳储量增长明显,净增236950.27万t,增长率达65.27%,碳密度整体呈“升-降-升”趋势;2)9次清查结果中,除第2次清查碳汇值为负值外,其他期间均表现为正的碳汇,9期清查平均碳汇为5800.06万t·a^(-1);3)第七次至第九次清查中,碳储量贡献前6的省均为西藏(91877.33万~93646.56万t)>云南(69712.67万~81015.10万t)>黑龙江(63810.25万~74683.36万t)>四川(55134.20万~62347.95万t)>内蒙古(49795.04万~61786.99万t)>吉林(32997.31万~38833.95万t),不同区域碳储量贡献关系均为西南地区(42.54%~45.67%)>东北地区(20.29%~20.54%)>华北地区(10.93%~11.56%)>中南地区(8.92%~9.86%)>华东地区(7.13%~8.56%)>西北地区(6.81%~7.20%),碳密度关系均为西南地区(66.68~68.09 t·hm^(-2))>东北地区(41.69~47.42 t·hm^(-2))>西北地区(41.29~45.82 t·hm^(-2))>华北地区(32.38~39.18 t·hm^(-2))>华东地区(27.35~38.69 t·hm^(-2))>中南地区(24.11~31.57 t·hm^(-2));4)Logistic生长方程下2030年全国天然林碳储量潜力达715320.29万t,2060年达到867620.71万t,全国天然林资源将为碳中和目标达成发挥巨大作用。

The carbon storage and carbon density of natural forests in China were calculated by biomass conversion factor method based on the data of 9 forest resource inventories,and the logistic growth equation was used to predict the carbon sink potential of natural forests in China during 2023-2063.The results showed that 1)during the inventory period of over 40 years,China s natural forest carbon storage had increased significantly,with a net increase of 2369.5027 million t and an increment rate of 65.27%.The carbon density as a whole showed a“rising-declining-rising”trend.2)Among the 9 inventory results,except for the second inventory in which the carbon sink value was in negative growth,all other periods showed positive carbon sink growth and the average carbon sink of the nine periods was 5.80006 million t.3)In the seventh to ninth inventory,the top six provinces in terms of carbon storage contribution were Tibet(918.7733-936.4656)>Yunnan(697.1267-810.1510)>Heilongjiang(638.1025-746.8336)>Sichuan(551.3420-623.4795)>Inner Mongolia(497.9504-617.8699)>Jilin(329.9731-388.3395 million t),and the relationship between carbon stock contribution in different regions were Southwest China(42.54%-45.67%)>Northeast China(20.29%-20.54%)>North China(10.93%-11.56%)>Central and South China(8.92%-9.86%)>East China(7.13%-8.56%)>Northwest China(6.81%-7.20%),and the carbon density relationships were all Southwest China(66.68-68.09)>Northeast China(41.69-47.42)>Northwest China(41.29-45.82)>North China(32.38-39.18)>East China(27.35-38.69)>Central and South China(24.11-31.57 t·hm^(-2)).4)The carbon sink potential of China s natural forests in 2030 under the Logistic growth equation amounted to 7153.2029 million t in 2030 and 8676.2071 million t in 2060,China s natural forest resources will play a huge role in the carbon neutrality target.