基于情景构建的北京市破坏性地震人口转移安置研究

Study on Population Transfer and Resettlement after Destructive Earthquake in Beijing Based on Scenario Planning

本研究以“风险评估-震害描述-任务需求-能力分析-应急准备”为技术主线,通过情景构建分析,对未来北京市可能发生破坏性地震特别是后果极为严重的地震巨灾进行情景模拟,并在此基础上从地震灾害受灾人员分布和避难疏散安置需求、规模出发,编制避难转移安置方案,明确震后受灾群众疏散转移指挥与受灾群众安置行动。

This study follows a technical main line of“Risk Assessment-Damage Description-Task Requirements-Capability Analysis-Emergency Preparedness,”employing scenario construction analysis to simulate potential devastating earthquakes,particularly those with extremely severe consequences,in the future for Beijing Municipality.Building upon this foundation,the research focuses on earthquake disaster victim distribution and evacuation sheltering needs,as well as their scale,to formulate evacuation and sheltering plans.These plans explicitly outline command and control for post-earthquake evacuee movement and the actions involved in accommodating affected populations.