苏州市南星湖片区水网乡村景观生态风险时空动态变化与分区管控研究

Research on the Spatiotemporal Dynamic Changes and Zoning Control of Ecological Risks in Rural Landscape of Water Network Area in Nanxing Lake Area,Suzhou

苏南地区是中国城镇发展的先行区,具有复杂的水网空间特征,呈现出一定的地域特殊性。伴随快速化城镇发展,水网乡村景观格局破碎化、生态风险增加等问题突显,基于景观生态风险评价提出分区管控策略是维护地区生态系统稳定性的有效方法。以苏州市南星湖片区为例,运用景观格局指数构建景观生态风险评价模型,分析研究区2010–2020年景观生态风险的时空分布特征,并运用CA-Markov模型对2030年景观生态风险空间分布进行模拟预测,提出时空动态变化下的空间分区管控策略。研究表明2010–2020年南星湖片区景观生态风险呈上升趋势,高、较高风险面积占比分别增加7.77%、4.58%,中、较低风险面积有所下降,多向更高一级风险转移,其中荷花荡、甫港村等建设用地扩张区域风险等级上升较显著。2030年情景模拟下景观生态风险等级不断上升,高、较高、中风险范围逐步扩张,面积占比分别增加3.3%、0.23%、2.16%,较低、低风险面积则逐步缩减,相较于现状,2030年情景模拟下风险等级上升区主要集中于南星湖、汾湖周边等建设用地与水域镶嵌分布区域。将2020年与2030年土地利用模拟下的景观生态风险空间分布进行叠置分析,基于现状与潜在风险区识别结果并提出时空动态演变下的空间分区管控策略,为实现苏南水网乡村生态保护和合理开发提供科学指导。

The southern region of Jiangsu is a leading area for urban development in China,with complex spatial characteristics of water networks and a certain degree of regional specificity.With the rapid growth of urbanization,the fragmentation of water net-works,rural landscape patterns,and increased ecological risks have become prominent.Based on landscape ecological risk assessment,proposing zoning control strategies is an effective method to maintain the stability of regional ecosystems.Taking the Nanxing Lake Area in Suzhou as an example,the study uses the landscape pattern index to construct a landscape ecological risk assessment model,analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of landscape ecological risks in the study area from 2010 to 2020,and uses the CA-Markov model to simulate and predict the spatial distribution of landscape ecological risks in 2030,proposing spatial zoning control strategies under spatiotemporal dynamic changes.Research has shown that the land-scape ecological risk in the Nanxing Lake Area has risen from 2010 to 2020,with the proportion of high and high-risk areas increasing by 7.77%and 4.58%,respectively.The medium and low-risk areas have decreased and are mostly shifting toward higher-level risks.Among them,the risk level of areas with significant construction land expansion,such as Hehuadang and Fugang Village,has increased significantly.By 2030,the level of landscape ecological risk will continue to rise,and the range of high,little high,and medium risks will gradually expand.The proportion of area will increase by 3.3%,0.23%,and 2.16%,respectively,while the area of low and low risks will gradually decrease;compared to the current situation,the areas where the risk level increases under the 2030 scenario simulation are mainly concentrated in the inlaid distribution areas of construction land and water bodies such as Nanxing Lake and Fen Lake.Overlapping analysis of the spatial distribution of landscape ecolog-ical risks under land use simulation in 2020 and 2030,based on the identification results of current and potential risk areas,and proposing spatial zoning control strategies under spatiotemporal dynamic evolution,provides scientific guidance for achieving ecological protection and rational development of rural water networks in south Jiangsu.