绿色研发促进“中国制造”全球价值链跃迁了吗?——来自出口质量视角多元协整分析的新证据

Does Green R&D Promote the ‘Made in China’ Global Value Chain Leap?——New Evidence from Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of Export Quality Perspective

全球价值链绿色化、低碳化发展趋势下,如何破局“中国制造”长期“嵌入”而非“主导”全球价值链中高端环节是我国贸易高质量发展面临的现实问题。文章以出口质量为切入点,基于WIOD发布的世界投入产出数据与中国制造业面板数据,借助多元协整分析、ECM模型及Granger因果检验方法,实证分析绿色研发对“中国制造”全球价值链跃迁的影响及作用机制。研究发现:绿色研发短期内不利于“中国制造”全球价值链跃迁,而在长期中绿色研发与“中国制造”全球价值链跃迁存在长期稳定的协整关系;出口产品质量是绿色研发促进“中国制造”全球价值链跃迁的重要传导机制,相比于低强度研发投入制造行业,绿色研发对高强度研发行业的全球价值链跃迁产生了更显著的促进作用;进一步借助非线性门槛协整模型发现,绿色研发与“中国制造”全球价值链跃迁呈U型关系,仅有绿色研发强度突破“门槛值”才有利于激发“中国制造”全球价值链跃迁,且在不同门槛区间内二者关系从“短期波动”向“长期均衡”调整的速度和方向存在显著差异。据此,应稳步提升绿色研发投入水平、完善相关研发政策并以“质量为先”为突破口实现“中国制造”全球价值链跃迁。

Under the trend of low-carbon development of the global value chain,how to break the long-term‘embedding’of China’s manufacturing industry rather than‘leading’the high-end links of the global value chain is a realistic problem faced by China’s high-quality trade development.Based on the world input-output data published by WIOD and the panel data of China’s manufacturing industry,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of green R&D on the global value chain transition of“Made in China”and its mechanism by means of multiple cointegration analysis,ECM model and Granger causality test.The results show that green R&D is not conducive to the global value chain transition in the short term,but there is a long-term stable co-integration relationship between green R&D and global value chain transition in the long term.The quality of export products is an important transmission mechanism for green R&D to promote the global value chain transition.Compared with the low-intensity R&D input manufacturing industry,green R&D has a more significant promotion effect on the global value chain transition of high-intensity R&D industry.With the help of the nonlinear threshold cointegration model,it is found that the relationship between green R&D and global value chain transition is U-shaped.Only when green R&D intensity breaks a certain‘threshold’can it stimulate the global value chain transition.There are significant differences in the speed and direction of the adjustment from‘short-term fluctuation’to‘long-term equilibrium’in different threshold intervals.The research conclusion has important theoretical and practical significance for breaking through the green trade barriers faced by the traditional manufacturing industry and promoting to the middle and high end of the global value chain.