丝绸之路经济带核心区交通与旅游流强度的协调分析

Coordination Analysis of Traffic and Tourism Flow Intensity in the Core Area of the Silk Road Economic Belt

文章以新疆为研究案例,通过公路、铁路及航空三个主要交通方式构建综合交通服务系统指标体系,通过旅游规模、旅游消费、旅游效益及旅游效应四个维度构建旅游流强度指标体系,采用主成分分析法提取序参变量并在此基础上建立耦合协调模型分析系统间的耦合协调度情况。结果表明,(1)交通服务系统与旅游流强度系统具有很强的相关性,在2015-2019年一直是处于交通系统滞后于旅游系统,但二者之间的差异逐渐缩小,2020年受新冠肺炎疫情的影响,旅游系统明显滞后于交通系统。(2)两系统间的协调度经历了从轻度失调-良好协调-初级协调的转变,新疆地区旅游与交通系统之间处于初级协调的状态,这是一个非常利好的结果。

Taking Xinjiang as a research case,the paper constructs an indicator system of comprehensive transportation service system through three major transportation modes,namely,highway,railway and aviation,and constructs an indicator system of tourism flow intensity through four dimensions,namely,tourism scale,tourism consumption,tourism benefits and tourism effects;the principal component analysis is used to extract the order parameter variables and a coupling coordination model is established on this basis to analyze the coupling coordination degree between systems.The results show that,(1)the transportation service system and the tourism flow intensity system have a strong correlation.From 2015 to 2019,the transportation system has lagged behind the tourism system,but the difference between them has gradually narrowed;by 2020,due to the COVID-19,the tourism system will obviously lag behind the transportation system.(2)The coordination between the two systems has experienced a transition from mild imbalance to good coordination to primary coordination,the tourism and transportation systems in Xinjiang are still in a primary coordination state,which is a very favorable result.