“粮改饲”政策实施对畜禽养殖规模影响的研究

Study on the influence of"changing grain to forage"policy on livestock and poultry breeding scale

“粮改饲”政策是优化种养结构的重要手段,亦是促进农业经济的有力措施,更是促进养殖产业高质量发展的核心所在。基于双重差分模型,选用8个实施“粮改饲”政策省份的面板数据,探析“粮改饲”政策实施对畜禽养殖规模的影响。研究结果显示,“粮改饲”政策实施对我国畜禽养殖规模扩大具有一定驱动作用。养殖智能化水平、固定资产投入对畜禽养殖规模具有显著促进作用;犊牛价格、疫病发生强度对畜禽养殖规模化程度具有抑制作用。进一步研究发现,“粮改饲”政策实施能够显著推动大规模养殖场畜禽养殖规模化发展。养殖智能化水平对大规模养殖场的正向作用更为显著;相比中规模养殖场,疫病发生强度对大规模养殖场的不利影响相对较小。

The policy of"changing grain to forage"is an important means to optimize the structure of farming and breeding,a powerful measure to boost the agricultural economy,and the core of promoting high-quality development of the aquaculture industry.Based on the double difference model,panel data from eight provinces implementing the"changing grain to forage"policy was selected to explore the impact of the implementation of the"changing grain to forage"policy on the scale of livestock and poultry breeding.The research results show that the implementation of the"changing grain to forage"policy has a certain driving effect on the expansion of livestock and poultry breeding scale in China.The level of intelligent breeding and fixed asset investment has a significant promoting effect on the scale of livestock and poultry breeding.The price of calves and the intensity of disease occurrence have inhibitory effects on the scale of livestock and poultry farming.Further research has found that the implementation of the"changing grain to forage"policy can significantly promote the large-scale development of livestock and poultry in breeding farms.The level of intelligent breeding has a more significant positive effect on large-scale breeding farms.Compared to medium scale farms,the intensity of disease occurrence has a relatively small adverse impact on large-scale farms.