国际液化天然气市场区域溢价研究

Research on the Regional Premium in International LNG Market

天然气作为最清洁的化石能源之一,在保障能源安全、促进能源低碳转型等方面具有不可替代的重要作用。在国际能源大宗商品贸易领域经常出现的区域溢价现象,在国际液化天然气(LNG)市场也同样存在。文章首先界定国际LNG市场区域溢价的概念,指出不能将不同区域天然气市场价格差异简单等同于区域溢价,并提出具体测算国际LNG市场区域溢价的2种口径。通过分析主要进口国家和地区的到岸进口价格发现,2011—2021年为亚洲溢价、2022年为欧洲溢价、2023年重回亚洲溢价,中国内地多数时期对欧洲溢价,但溢价情况好于东北亚及东南亚等国家和地区。区域溢价主要源于供需格局、运输成本、资源结构等方面因素,不能将区域计价简单视为出口方的价格歧视,预计未来较长时期内国际LNG市场将以亚洲对欧洲溢价为主。建议从提高国内天然气供应能力、做强做优国际贸易、加强全产业链国际合作等方面,保障我国天然气供应安全,平抑LNG进口成本波动。

As the cleanest fossil fuel,natural gas is playing an irreplaceable role in energy security and energy transition.Regional premium,which is commonly seen in international energy commodity trading,also exists in international LNG trading.Firstly this paper defines the concept of regional premium in the international LNG market,points that the price differences among regional market prices are not simply identical to regional premium in international LNG market,and put forwards two methods to calculate this regional premium.Based on the method to use landed prices,calculation shows that it was Asian Premium(over Europe)during the period from 2011 to 2021,and it was European Premium(over Asia)in the year 2022;for the China mainland market,it was mostly premium over Europe but the premium was smaller than those over Europe for other northeast Asian or southeast Asian markets.Regional premium is not simply due to the price discrimination by LNG exporters,and there are many intrinsic logics for its existence,such as the supply-demand situation,the transportation costs,and the resource structure.It is anticipated that there will still be Asian premium(over Europe)in the future.It suggests that Chinese companies can secure natural gas supply and control import cost by promoting domestic gas production,enhancing international LNG trade and strengthening international cooperation along the LNG value chain.