“碳减排”背景下北京生态涵养区农产品对产值影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Products on Production Value in Beijing Ecological Cultivation Zone under the Background of “Carbon Emission Reduction”

北京生态涵养区是首都重要的生态屏障和水源保护地,因功能所限,该区域的农业生产空间被大大压缩。为了探寻生态涵养区农业可持续发展路径,以该区域农业产值和十种主要农产品为研究对象,基于2011—2021年生态涵养区相关统计数据,运用灰色关联分析和GM (1,1)模型预测方法,对其进行关联度计算排序以及“十四五”期间数值预测。结果显示:北京生态涵养区农业产值与主要农产品都属于强关联,蔬菜及食用菌、肉类、牛奶对农业产值的贡献排在前三位;“十四五”期间的预测产值和产量将进一步下降,农业生产比重还将进一步缩小。需要继续增加农业科技元素投入,提高生产效率和农产品质量,扩大销售渠道,打造生态涵养区农业品牌,增加农产品的附加值;同时,将农业与休闲旅游有机结合,大力发展乡村旅游,促进区域产业加速融合和经济社会快速发展。

Beijing Ecological Cultivation Area is an important ecological barrier and water source protection area in the capital city,and the agricultural production space in this area has been greatly compressed due to its functional limitations.In order to explore the path of sustainable development of agriculture in the eco-containment area,we take the agricultural output value and ten major agricultural products in the area as the research object,and based on the relevant statistical data of the eco-containment area from 2011 to 2021,we use the gray correlation analysis and the GM(1,1)model prediction method to calculate the correlation ranking and the numerical prediction of the"14th Five-Year Plan"period."The results show that Beijing's eco-harboring areas have been recognized as the most important ecological areas in the world.The results show that the agricultural output value of the Beijing Ecological Shelter Area and the main agricultural products are all strongly correlated,and the contribution of vegetables and edible fungi,meat,and milk to the agricultural output value ranked in the top three;the predicted output value and production during the"14th Five-Year Plan"period will further decline,and the proportion of agricultural production will be further reduced.It is necessary to continue to increase the input of agricultural science and technology,improve the production efficiency and quality of agricultural products,expand sales channels,create an ecological culvert agricultural brand,and increase the value-added of agricultural products;at the same time,the organic combination of agriculture and recreational tourism,and vigorously develop rural tourism,and promote the acceleration of the integration of regional industries and the rapid development of economic and social development.