贸易政策不确定性对中国产品进口的影响研究——基于省级面板数据分析

Research on the influence of trade policy uncertainty on Chinese imports——Based on provincial panel data analysis

随着全球化的深入发展,贸易政策不确定性对全球贸易产生了重要的影响。中国作为世界上最大的贸易国家之一,其进口对于国内经济增长和国际贸易平衡具有重要作用。本文以2000-2019全国31个省市自治区为研究对象,采用双向固定效应模型验证贸易政策不确定性与中国产品进口之间的关系。研究结果表明:贸易政策不确定性显著影响了中国产品的进口,贸易政策不确定性指数越大,中国产品进口规模越小;贸易政策不确定性指数越小,中国产品进口规模越大。本研究提供了深入了解贸易政策不确定性与中国进口之间关系的新视角,以期为政策制定者和企业决策者提供有益参考。

With the deepening of globalization,trade policy uncertainty has an important impact on global trade.As one of the largest trading countries in the world,China's imports play an important role in domestic economic growth and international trade balance.This paper takes 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2000 to 2019 as the research object,and uses a two-way fixed effect model to verify the relationship between trade policy uncertainty and China's product imports.The results show that trade policy uncertainty significantly affects the import of Chinese products.The larger the trade policy uncertainty index is,the smaller the import scale of Chinese products is.The smaller the trade policy uncertainty index,the larger the scale of China's product imports.This study provides a new perspective to understand the relationship between trade policy uncertainty and China's imports,and provides a useful reference for policy makers and corporate decision makers.