基于时间序列分析的港口货物吞吐量预测研究

Prediction of Cargo Container Throughput Based on Time Series Analysis

港口货物吞吐量是衡量企业生产经营活动的重要依据,体现地区的经济活力与国际贸易潜力。为更准确地预测港口货物吞吐量,本文针对上海港2013年至2022年间集装箱吞吐量变化特征进行量化分析,使用时间序列研究方法对上海吞吐量发展趋势作出精准化预测。对时间序列的平稳性与模型合理性进行进一步验证,减少时间序列历史数据非线性、非平稳性特点产生的预测误差,提升港口吞吐量预测的准确性和科学性,为实现生产效率与资金投入的科学化统筹提供基础数据支撑。

Throughput is important for measuring the production activities of enterprises,reflecting the regional economic vitality and international trade potential.In order to predict the cargo throughput more accurately,this paper analysis the characteristics of the time series of Shanghai port container throughput from 2013 to 2022.The stationarity of the time series and the rationality of the model are further verified,so as to reduce the prediction errors caused by the nonlinear and non-stationarity characteristics of the historical data of the time series.It will improve the accuracy and scientificity of the cargo throughput prediction,also will provide basic data support for production efficiency and capital investment.