基于最大熵模型的海南杜鹃在中国的潜在地理分布

Potential Geographical Distribution of Rhododendron hainanense Based on MaxEnt Model

海南杜鹃(Rhododendron hainanense Merr.)具有较高的观赏价值和生态价值,研究其生态需求和适生范围,对于海南杜鹃的保护与栽培应用具有重要意义。本研究主要应用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(ArcGIS),基于海南杜鹃现有地理分布信息和气候因子,模拟海南杜鹃在中国的潜在分布区,并具体分析影响海南杜鹃潜在分布的关键环境因子及适宜阈值。结果表明:在当代气候情景下(1970—2000年),用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)对海南杜鹃适生区进行模拟的准确度较高,气温和降水对海南杜鹃的影响较大,其中影响海南杜鹃潜在分布的主导因子为最暖季降水量(bio18)和平均气温日较差(bio2)。平均气温日较差(bio2)在5~7℃区间、最暖季降水量(bio18)在610~3990 mm区间的气候环境有利于海南杜鹃生长,在一定范围内海南杜鹃的出现概率会随着降水量的增大而增大。在中国区域,海南杜鹃比较适应海南、广西、广东、台湾地区、四川东部、重庆以及贵州等地的气候环境,当代气候情景下总适生区面积为132.36×10^(4) km^(2),总适生区范围整体上会随着未来气候的变化而有所增大。本研究旨在为海南杜鹃的保护与应用推广提供科学依据。

Rhododendron hainanense Merr.has high ornamental and ecological value.It is of great significance for the protection and application of this plant through the study of ecological requirement and applicable range.In this paper,MaxEnt model and ArcGIS were used to simulate the potential geographical distribution of R.hainanense in China,based on the existing geographic distribution information,climate factors of this plant.And the key environmental factors,affecting the potential distribution of R.hainanense and suitable thresholds are analyzed.The results showed that under the contemporary climate scenario(1970—2000),the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)can predict the suitable area of R.hainanense with high accuracy.The temperature and precipitation have a great influence on R.hainanense.The main factors affecting the potential distribution of R.hainanense are precipitation of warmest quarter(bio18)and mean diurnal range(bio2).When the precipitation of warmest quarter(bio18)is between 610-3990 mm and the mean diurnal range(bio2)is 5-7℃,the climate environment is suitable for the growth of R.hainanense.In a certain range,the probability of presence of R.hainanense will increase with the increase of precipitation.In China,the suitable habi-tat area of R.hainanense is mainly distributed in Hainan,Guangxi,Guangdong,Taiwan region,eastern Sichuan,Chongqing and Guizhou.The total suitable habitat area of R.hainanense under contemporary climate scenarios is 132.36×10^(4) km^(2).The purpose of this paper is to provide a scientific basis for the protection and application for the species.