共同富裕背景下农村人口老龄化对农民收入增长的影响

Impact of Rural Population Aging on Farmer’s Income Growth under the Background of Common Prosperity

农村人口老龄化较之城市更为严重,正逐渐成为共同富裕背景下农民收入增长的重要障碍,然而相关研究却付之阙如。本文基于中国农村家庭追踪调查4期农户面板追踪数据,并运用面板双向固定效应模型实证考察了农村人口老龄化对农民收入增长的影响。研究发现:农村人口老龄化会显著抑制农民收入增长,劳动力数量和质量双双下降是其重要原因。而且,即使人口老龄化在一定程度上也会提升转移性收入和财产性收入,但是这远不能抵消人口老龄化对经营性收入和工资性收入的负面作用。人口老龄化对农民收入增长的影响也具有区域异质性,它对东北地区的影响最大,东部地区次之,西部地区第三,中部地区最后。为全面推进乡村振兴和实现共同富裕,政府应高度重视农村人口老龄化的负面影响,兼顾城乡区域平衡发展,顺势延长退休年龄,大力培育老龄产业,努力健全农村社会养老保障体系,协同推进土地流转市场和农业社会化服务市场建设。

Population aging in rural areas is more serious than that in urban areas,which is gradually becoming the main obstacle to the increase of farmers’income under the background of common prosperity,but there is no relevant research.Based on the data of China Rural Household Panel Survey,this paper empirically examines the impact of population aging on farmer's income growth by using the panel two-way fixed effects model.It is found that population aging will restrain the increase of farmer's income,and the decline of both quantity and quality of the labor force is the main cause.Moreover,even if population aging will increase transfer income and property income to a certain extent,it will not offset the negative effects of population aging on operating income and wage income.The impact of population aging on farmers'income growth has regional heterogeneity,and it has the greatest impact on northeast China,followed by eastern China,western China and central China.To promote rural development and achieve common prosperity,the government should attach great attention to the negative impact of rural population aging,take into account the balanced development of urban and rural areas,extend the retirement age,vigorously cultivate the aging industry,strive to improve the rural social old-age security system,and jointly promote the construction of land transfer market and agricultural socialized service market.