考虑网络攻击影响的源网荷储系统风险评估

Risk analysis on the source-grid-load-storage system affected by cyber attacks

随着能源互联网技术的发展,电网调度正向“源网荷储”协同优化运行模式转变,系统利用能源优化配置、多能互补控制、大数据分析等先进技术,实现清洁能源高效利用、系统资源交互共享、电力需求响应等特性,由于物理设备与信息系统的深度耦合,针对其信息系统的网络攻击可能会导致物理故障。为了评估网络攻击对源网荷储系统的影响,从攻击者角度出发分析网络攻击的影响并建立改进的攻击图,采用频繁模式增长(FP-Growth)关联规则分析方法确定攻击路径;根据漏洞评估与贝叶斯定理确定攻击目标被成功攻击的概率,将源网荷储遭受网络攻击产生故障的概率乘以负荷损失量作为风险评估指标。分别对源网荷储系统中配电网断路器与分布式电源遭受网络攻击的场景进行风险定量评估,验证了所提方法的可行性与有效性。

With the boost of Energy Internet,power grid dispatching is gradually taking"source-grid-load-storage"integrated optimization strategy.The optimization mode can realize effective use of clean energy,sharing of resources and demand response of an integrated system with optimal allocation of resources,multi-energy complementation,big data analysis and other advanced technologies.However,due to the deep coupling of physical devices and information systems,cyber attacks aiming at information systems might lead to physical faults.To evaluate the effect of cyber attacks on a source-grid-load-storage integrated system,the effect of cyber attacks is analyzed from the perspective of attackers.Then,the improved attack graph is built,and attack routes are determined by Frequent Pattern Growth(FP-Growth)association rule mining.Then,the probability of being aimed and attacked is obtained by vulnerability assessment and Bayesian theorem.The risk assessment index is the product of the probability of cyber attack on the source-grid-loadstorage integrated system and the load loss.The risks of distribution network circuit breakers and distributed sources subjected to cyber attacks are quantitively assessed,and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.