丘陵地区格网尺寸对滑坡易发性预测的影响研究——以浙江省永嘉县为例

Study on the influence of grid size on landslide susceptibility prediction in hilly region:a case study of Yongjia county of Zhejiang province

本文以浙江省永嘉县为研究区,分析丘陵地区滑坡灾害影响因子与格网尺寸的相关性,并利用信息量模型法实现滑坡灾害易发性分区。结果表明,格网选取对坡度和降雨量因子的预测结果影响较大,对工程岩组、坡向和交通线因子的预测结果影响较小;在兼顾计算效率和精度的情况下,低山丘陵地区滑坡易发性预测格网边长宜为200 m;不同地域滑坡预测的主要影响因子不尽相同,各地应根据实际情况合理确定格网尺寸。格网尺寸对滑坡易发性预测至关重要,今后工作将继续开展地势高陡区域滑坡研究,以期提高滑坡易发性的预测精度。

Taking Yongjia county of Zhejiang province as an example,the correlation between the influence factors of landslide disaster and the size of grid is analyzed,and the information model method is used to realize the landslide disaster susceptibility zoning.The results show that the selection of grid has great influence on prediction of results of the factors of slope and rainfall in hilly areas,but little influence on prediction of results of the factors of engineering rock group,slope direction and traffic line.Taking into account the calculation efficiency and accuracy,the grid of 200 meters should be selected for the prediction of landslide susceptibility in low mountain and hilly areas.The main factors affecting landslide prediction in different regions are not the same,so the grid size should be reasonably determined according to the actual situation.The size of grid is very important to the prediction of landslide susceptibility.In the future,we will continue to carry out the research of landslide in the high and steep terrain area,which will have certain practical significance to improve the overall prediction accuracy of landslide susceptibility.