基于Meta分析的海南岛湿地生态系统服务价值评估

Evaluation of Ecosystem Services in Hainan Island Wetlands Based on Meta-Analysis

为保护湿地资源,提升生态系统服务价值,以海南岛湿地为研究对象,运用Meta分析构建海南岛湿地生态系统服务价值转移模型,评估1990年、2000年、2010年和2020年各类型湿地价值及其动态变化,探究影响价值评估结果的因素及有效性。结果表明,1990-2020年海南岛湿地生态系统服务价值呈现递增趋势,30年间湿地价值共增加了95.32亿元,增长率达41.32%;其中水产养殖场和库塘价值增加最多,分别增加了66.55亿元和42.61亿元。2020年海南岛湿地生态系统服务价值为326.02亿元,平均价值为24.17万元/hm^(2);其中红树林湿地单位面积价值最高,达38.25万元/hm^(2),其次为河流湿地,为25.81万元/hm^(2),盐田湿地最低,为14.37万元/hm^(2)。在Meta回归模型中,湿地面积、盐田、碳税法、保护力度对湿地单位面积价值表现为负效应,红树林、物质生产、气候调节、保持土壤、旅游休闲、人口密度对湿地单位面积价值表现为正效应;模型平均转移误差为18.82%,在可接受的误差范围内,表明构建的Meta价值转移模型可以作为快速评估海南岛湿地价值的有效方法。

Hainan Island has rich wetland resources for its specific climate and diverse landforms.In this study,we evaluated the ecosystem services and the changes in value of the different wetland types on Hainan Island in 1990,2000,2010,and 2020 using the established transfer model of ecosystem service values based on meta-analysis.We also explored the variables affecting wetland ecosystem service values and assessed the effectiveness of our results.Our aim was to develop a scientific system for evaluating ecosystem services that will promote wetland restoration,conservation,and management.The evaluation system included four categories of ecosystem services:material production,climate regulation,supporting the biodiversity and soil conservation,tourism and recreation.Landsat TM/OLI remote sensing images of the investigated area in 1990,2000,2020 and 2020 were obtained as the primary data source,and the wetlands in the investigated area were divided into two categories(natural and artificial)and six types(river,lagoon,mangrove,reservoir/pond,aquaculture,and salt pan).Results show that the value of ecosystem services provided by Hainan Island wetlands increased by 9.532 billion yuan from 1990 to 2020,an increase of 41.32%.Among those services,the total value of aquaculture,reservoir and pond wetlands increased the most,by 6.655 billion yuan and 4.261 billion yuan(1274.90% and 51.56%),followed by riverine wetlands(0.834 billion yuan,19.64%).However,the value of lagoon wetlands decreased from 8.046 billion yuan in 1990 to 5.855 billion yuan in 2020(-2.191 billion yuan,-27.23%),while the total values of mangrove and salt pan wetlands were relatively stable.The total value of wetland ecosystem services on Hainan Island was 32.602 billion yuan in 2020,an average value of 241700 yuan/hm^(2).The value per unit area was highest for mangrove wetlands(382500 yuan/hm^(2)),followed by riverine wetlands(258100 yuan/hm^(2)),lagoon wetlands(252900 yuan/hm^(2))aquaculture(245500 yuan/hm^(2)),reservoir and pond wetlands(226600 yuan/hm^(2)),and salt pan wetlands(143700 yuan/hm^(2)).Analysis using the meta-regression model indicates that variables such as wetland area,salt pan,carbon tax,and protection intensity had negative effects on the value of wetlands per unit area,while variables such as mangroves,material production,climate regulation,soil conservation,tourism and leisure,and population density had positive effects.The average transfer error of the proposed model based on meta-analysis was 18.82%,within the acceptable error range.The model provides an efficient,fast and reliable method for evaluating the services provided by Hainan Island wetlands.In short,the results of this study provide a scientific basis for justifying wetland protection and careful management of wetland ecosystem services on Hainan Island.