基于改进未确知测度的滑坡作用下管道易损性研究

Research on Pipeline Vulnerability under Landslide Action Based on Improved Unascer⁃tained Measurement

为准确评价滑坡作用下的管道易损性等级,以某地区山地管道为例,结合管道自身特点和滑坡灾害的空间分布特征,从承载体脆弱性、致灾体敏感性和防护体有效性等三个方面出发,建立易损性评价指标体系,通过矩估计理论优化不同赋权方法,结合指标权重和集对分析法,形成改进未确知测度模型,预测管道的易损性等级和发展态势。结果表明:管道及斜坡夹角、滑坡体坡度和截排水三个指标的优化权重最大,优化权重可降低单一赋权的主观性和客观性;改进模型避免了置信度人为选取带来的评价结果误差;管段6和8的系统发展处于“反势”,说明管段有危险性增大的趋势,其结果与实际情况一致,证明了模型的准确性和科学性。以上研究结果可为研究区域的管道管理和其他类似区域的线路规划提供实际参考。

In order to accurately evaluate the vulnerability level of pipelines under the action of landslide,taking mountain pipeline in a region as an example,combining the characteristics of pipeline and spatial distribution characteristics of landslide disaster,the vulnerability evaluation index system is established from three aspects of vulnerability of carrier,sensitivity of disaster causing body,and effectiveness of protection body.Different weighting methods are optimized by the theory of moment estimation.Combined with index weight and set pair analysis,an improved unascertained measurement model is formed to predict the vulnerability level and development trend of pipelines.The results show that the angle between pipeline and slope,slope of the landslide,and cut-off drainage have the largest optimal weight,and the optimal weight can reduce the subjectivity and objectivity of single weight.The improved model avoids the error of evaluation results caused by the artificial selection of confidence level.The system development of pipe sections 6 and 8 is in the"reverse trend",indicating that the risk of the pipe section is increasing.The results are consistent with the actual situation,which proves the accuracy and scientific nature of the model.The results above can provide practical reference for pipeline management and route planning in other similar areas.