中美货币政策分化溢出效应与我国应对措施

The Spillover Benefits of Monetary Policies Differentiation between China and US and China's Countermeasures

本文将中美货币政策分化划分为“分化-趋同-分化-趋同-分化”五个阶段,并从两国在经济形势、金融市场发展、货币政策与传导机制三方面差异对造成中美货币政策分化的原因进行分析。同时对中美两国货币政策分化所带来的金融市场波动,金融风险加大;人民币资产吸引力降低,外资流向美国;我国熊猫债的发展,推动人民币成为国际融资货币;美国短期减少中国进口,中国实体经济发展不确定性增加等溢出效应进行分析,提出面对中美货币政策分化,我国应增强货币政策的自主性与灵活性、金融市场改革、供给侧结构改革等措施建议。

This paper divides the monetary policy differentiation between China and the United States into five stages,namely:"differentiation-convergence-differentiation-convergence-differentiation",and analyzes the reasons from the perspective of the differences between the two countries in terms of economic situation,financial market development,monetary policy and transmission mechanism.At the same time it analyzes the spillover benefits brought about by the monetary policy differentiation,such as the financial market fluctuations and increased financial risks;the decreased attractiveness of RMB assets and the flow of foreign investment to the United States;the development of China's panda bond promoting the renminbi to become an international financing currency;and U.S's reducing imports from China in the short term and the increasing uncertainty in the development of China's real economy,etc.It is proposed that in the face of the monetary policies differentiation between China and the United States,China should enhance the autonomy and flexibility of its monetary policy,reform financial markets,and reform the supply side structure.